PS3 will reach 30 million install base before the X360

[Dodece]

I think in the future we may very well look back at this summer as the high water mark for the PS3. Perhaps from this point onward with the loss of its last great exclusive, and the increasing price divide that should arrive in September the tide seems highly likely to reverse in a large way.

For all the talk of the PS3 key advantages the ones that the 360 has are more pressing in my mind. Microsoft will have the least expensive console this is more then just an incentive for core gamers that could have bought the console at a higher price. This is about gamers with less disposable income finally being able to buy a current generation console. Rather then one that is seven years old.

Microsoft has the stronger titles this holiday season. They have three exclusive sequels for hit series. That is very hard to ignore especially considering that all year long they have been securing more exclusive third party sequels. The law of sequels is that sequels sell. Not only do they sell themselves they also sell the hardware.

Finally Sony has to find a response to the 360 library. Microsoft has been and is securing far too many exclusives, and thanks to the consoles architecture. They not Sony are getting what amount to PC ports to the console. That means the 360 is going to continue to wrack up the stronger library. Making matters worse Sony still has the highest development costs in the industry. Sony has a lot of ground to make up here if they are going to perform at Microsoft's level.

Bottom line Microsoft really played the game very tight up until this point, because they could afford to. I think most predictions for this year took into account the 360 seeing a modest price cut earlier. Rather then a larger one later, and that might be the critical factor. Not only that but nobody even considered supply constraints earlier in the year.

Bottom line this prediction is just not very likely in fact given the rumored price drop I think the 360 will reach thirty million late next spring. Last year this is when the 360 started to see sales increase markedly over the PS3, and once again it seems to be happening almost on cue. So I expect much greater sales until at least mid November. Which is not hard to imagine given the comparative lineups. That is what is not being considered here. Four months of bump which could never be accounted for by Halo 3 alone.