Depends on marketing costs too which a lot of people are not mentionning and can be a significant portion of the cost for some games.
I think the 1 million figure for a typical HD game sounds right.
For MGS4 I would pin it at 2.5-3 million copies, around 4 million copies for GTA4.
I don't think we have had many big HD titles flop yet this gen.
GTA4 is at 10 Mill, MGS4 about to hit the 3 million mark.
Even games like Heavenly sword are over the 1 million mark..
Flops would be games like Haze which definitly didn't recoup costs. ( on top of development costs the game got TV adds)..
Ninja Gaiden 2 is probably not generating much profit at the time either but if tecmo goes the way of the previous iterations and release a definitive version a la black later on they should probably be able to generate some profit...
At this point GH3 is probably still the non Nintendo game that has generated the most profit this gen.
Close behind should be GTA4, Halo3 and CoD4.
PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !
PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !
