Prediction: $200 360 will outsell $400 PS3 and $250 Wii

[mike_intellivision]

Just some thoughts.

First of all, I consider the source of this prediction. I do not think the prediction can be separated from the person making it ... a person who does not have generally a lot of good things to say about the Wii.

Second, http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39565&end=39663

This chart shows how the Wii in the Americas is doing compared to the WW sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360. Surprisingly, it is close. But many weeks, just the sales in one region for the Wii are better than the sales in all regions for the other two cosoles.

Third, the cost "advantage" quickly disappears for the Xbox 360 when memory has to be bought. This costs at least $20. And interestingly, the MSRP on the 512M unit (to put it on par with the Wii) is the same as the price difference -- $50. Related to this, top games cost $10 more on the Xbox 360. Then there are the cables and headsets that come with the more expensive models and the $100 wireless adapter that is built into the Wii.

Fourth, the price drop has not changed demand in Europe. As has been noted, you can get an Xbox 360 tas a hard drive for less than a Wii. But the Wii still outsells it.

Fifth, how many people really want Arcade 360s? This has all the markings of a stock dump. The target for this is more casual gamers -- but other than Viva Pinata, what games are there for them to buy (I know there are some, this is rhetorical).

If Microsoft really wanted to move sales, it would lower the price of the 60M unit to $300 (from $350) and the 120M unit to $400 (from $450).

Would I be surprised if the Xbox 360 had a good week after the price drop? NO.

Would I be surprised if the Xbox 360 is still selling as well three weeks after the price drop? YES.

Mike from Morgantown