I think Halo 3 may find itself trumped in the FPS arena by some of the competition. I'm sure it'll be a great game, but given the initial reaction of the beta and the quality of some of the other games in the genre (i.e. Bioshock and CoD4), it will be hard to crown it as GotY.
I hear that Uncharted looks great and plays less so. Hopefully they'll be able to improve the controls before it's released. We don't know enough about GTA IV to be able to judge it. MP3 will control great but be 'dinged' for the lack of multiplayer. And Zelda PH won't win because it's a hand held title.
So that puts Super Mario Galaxy in the lead. There are certainly some interesting concepts being put into the game. We'll have to see how much fun and how long the game lasts before we can declare it the winner.
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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