Revenue and New Assumptions:
For the FY End Jun 09, these are the assumptions we will be using for both analyses:
Average X360 revenue (with price cut) = $230(*)
With more weight on the $199 price point
Average X360 gross margin = $0(*)
That means, on average, xbox consoles will be sold on a break even basis, due to the dramatic price cut.
Though even with the price cut, I think the Elite and the Pro may actually still be making some positive gross margins.
Predicted console sales = 12 million(*)
(You can insert your own prediction here)
Games = 90 million x $30(*) = $2,700(*)
Based on the NPD attach rate and previous methodology
Live Revenue per unit = $18(*)
Live Revenue = $18(*) x 32.3 total consoles = $581(*) million
Total Consoles Sold x Live Revenue / Console
Live Revenue per console is approx. $18(*) for the past 2 years, based on the original analysis figures.
We will use the same methodology as per the previous analysis to derive games and accessories figures.
Using that, the numbers will be:
Games = 90(*) million units
Accessories = 43(*) million units
These numbers are all based on 12 million consoles sold, for a total of 32.3 million LTD at the end of FY end Jun 09.
Having all the Xbox Platform assumptions, we basically need to fill up all the other line items to complete the analysis. Below is a table to compare from previous FY.
