Daxter210 said:
Hello everyone,
I write this my analysis, because after the financial results released by M$, Sony and Nintendo, some people say that the numbers of Sony are low, instead I with my analysis want to demonstrate that Sony numbers are very good and in line with PS2 generation.
My analysis:
The last 9 months (December 2007 / June 2008) PS3 shipped are 1.88m more than xbox360 (208,000 for month)
This suggests that PS3 exceed xbox360 worldwide next year.
That suggests PS3 sales are exceeding 360 sales now. Those consoles will be gone by next year. As for which console sells better in 2009, remember that the 360 sold better in 2007. It lost the lead, and Sony could do the same.
June 2008
xbox360 shipped 20.3m
PS3 shipped 14.41m
My predictions for December 2008:
Q2 + Q3 ( Q3 boost shipments x3.5 for holidays, whit price cut for xbox360 / no price cut for PS3, but now Blu-ray is the standard format for high definition movie and will be a system seller)
(very good so far, your information about the past is good)
xbox360 shipped 25.5m
Ps3 shipped 21.5m
(Those look pretty good, I think 360 might be 500k higher though)
In 2009, however, xbox360 will have covered the entire xbox 1 userbase and will be interesting to see how sales go.
I expect a slowdown in sales xbox360, but at the same time a significant increase in sales of PS3, thanks to new model slim + price cut + great release of exclusive as Killzone 2 - FFXIII exclusive for JAP market - GOW3 and others.
The slim model won't mean a whole lot to consumers beyond Sony's ability to lower price. It still probably won't be able to get the price down to $200 in 2009, which is the premium price. As for KZ2, FF13, and GoW3, I know 2 of those people thought would be released this year, and they never made it. FF13 and GoW3 could easily slip into 2010. And I would be very wary of counting on the Japanese market right now.
I predict that PS3 in 2009, sells 500,000 units more than xbox360 for month and PS3 exceed xbox360 in Q3 2009(settember 2009).
(If "for month" means 'per month' then that is possible... Perhaps a little optimistic though)
Right now, pre-price cut, the PS3 is selling 50k a week more than the 360 world wide. That's 200,000k per month. Now that the price is dropping, the 360 could well erase that lead. 500k more per month for all of 2009 is a pipe dream.
I think that PS3 I think you mean PS2 in its life cycle of 10 years, sold about 120m, but Sony will earn more of the past generation for these reasons:
(PS3 isn't going to come close to 120 million, and it won't have a 10 year life in sales terms any more than the NES had a 20 year life... I would even doubt it having a ten year life by the launch>discontinued span (which means when Sony stop making them) The PS1 only just lasted 10 years by that definition... PS3 is not as popular and Sony are unlikely to keep it in production when it sells next to nothing.
My predictions:
PS2 sold after 10 years (lifetime) about 140m but with piracy
PS3 sold after 10 years (lifetime) about 120m but without piracy
Profits:
140m PS2 with piracy <<<<<<<<<<<<<< that 120m PS3 without piracy
(Erm... you realise the "era" of PS2 made Sony over $2.3 billion... and that includes losses from PSP,... (although it also includes some PS1 profits)... My bet is when PS2 is done selling, if we could seperate it out it would have made between 3.5 and 4 billion $.
The PS3 meanwhile (if we could seperate) has lost over 4 billion already, probably nearer 5
Yep. A decade of awesome wiped out by one year of stupidity.
Blu-ray victory >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that 20m console less on the market (140m - 120m)
The profits that will bring Blu-ray victory will be enormous for the next 15 years.
Now that blue-ray has won, we can say that the strategy of sony to include Blu-ray in PS3 was great.
It was great for Blu-Ray, which was developed by a consortium of about 20 different companies. Sony has to split all those profits. In the meantime, forcing the inclusion of the BR player is what made the PS3 prohibitively expensive in the first place, and killed the PS3's sales last year. Moreover, Sony's BR partners will probably do all they can to keep Sony from dropping the PS3's price too quickly, so that it doesn't make their own players look bad.
In addition:
WII sold after 5 years (lifetime) about 80m (2011) (Hah!) Double Hah! Wii will be at 40m after 2 years. With accelerated production, the should easily break 65m by the end of next year, and then 80m about 3.5 years into the life of the console. By 5 years, after price cuts, it should be around 100m easy.
PS3 sold after 5 years about 60m (2011) (could be close to that, but it will be slowing down by then) That means it has to sell 40m in the next 4 years. Possible. That's a little better than current rates, but we can assume demand will increase as price drops.
xbox360 sold after 6 years about 45m (2011) / after 5 years about 40m (2010) 360 should end the year around 25m, especially with the price cut. If we assume there is no acceleration of sales in its next 3 years, it should still be able to make 50m in that time. Remember they sold 9.5m in the last 12 months. 9.5 * 3.4 = 32.3 m. Add that to the present total, and you get the 360 on a pre-price reduced pace for 52-53m by the end of it's sixth year.
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xbox360 sold after 7 years (lifetime) about 50m (2012) By this time the XB720 will be out and no one will care about 360 sales totals. However, assuming they clearance the remaining consoles it should end up closer to 60m by this point.
PS3 sold after 6 years about 75m (2012) / after 7 years about 90m (2013) Sony will have moved off the PS3 by this time and started on the PS4. Don't expect the PS3 to duplicate the PS2's staying power into the next gen. The system is not nearly as popular, and by this point will be facing stiff competition from the Wii2 and XB720. The odds are Sony be under 20m by the end of its second year. It is unlikely that it will manage to keep up a pace of 14m per year needed over the next 4 years to reach 75m and 90m.
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PS3 after 10 years (lifetime) about 120m (2016) Hells no. The PS3 will never put up 10m sales per for its final 3 years (even if you accept the 10 year lifespan Sony touts). Not only is the tech going to be out of date, and the BR player likely on it's way out the door (remember DVD and VHS only got about a decade too), but it will also be competing with at least 3 new "next, next" gen consoles at the same time.
In conclusion:
Sony in this next-gen will be strong as in the PS2 generation and in addition thanks to PS3, Blu-ray has won the formats war. Nope. Sony blew it and blew it early. The PS3 already has lost the aura of the PS brand, and Sony won't be able to rebrand itself readily until the next generation, but then it will face two rivals that are much stronger than the were at the start of the PS1 and PS2 generations.
M$ in this next-gen sell twice that with xbox 1. About. Probably more if the squeeze a full 6 years out of it.
Nintendo has returned strong, as in the past. Nope. For Nintendo, this is truly unprecedented. The only reason the Wii might not reach PS2 level numbers (especially since the market has grown considerably) is if it pulls the plug in 2010 for the Wii2.
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