Daxter210 said:
Hello everyone,
I write this my analysis, because after the financial results released by M$, Sony and Nintendo, some people say that the numbers of Sony are low, instead I with my analysis want to demonstrate that Sony numbers are very good and in line with PS2 generation.
My analysis:
The last 9 months (December 2007 / June 2008) PS3 shipped are 1.88m more than xbox360 (208,000 for month)
This suggests that PS3 exceed xbox360 worldwide next year.
June 2008
xbox360 shipped 20.3m
PS3 shipped 14.41m
My predictions for December 2008:
Q2 + Q3 ( Q3 boost shipments x3.5 for holidays, whit price cut for xbox360 / no price cut for PS3, but now Blu-ray is the standard format for high definition movie and will be a system seller)
(very good so far, your information about the past is good)
xbox360 shipped 25.5m
Ps3 shipped 21.5m
(Those look pretty good, I think 360 might be 500k higher though)
In 2009, however, xbox360 will have covered the entire xbox 1 userbase and will be interesting to see how sales go.
I expect a slowdown in sales xbox360, but at the same time a significant increase in sales of PS3, thanks to new model slim + price cut + great release of exclusive as Killzone 2 - FFXIII exclusive for JAP market - GOW3 and others.
I predict that PS3 in 2009, sells 500,000 units more than xbox360 for month and PS3 exceed xbox360 in Q3 2009(settember 2009).
(If "for month" means 'per month' then that is possible... Perhaps a little optimistic though)
I think that PS3 in its life cycle of 10 years, sold about 120m, but Sony will earn more of the past generation for these reasons:
(PS3 isn't going to come close to 120 million, and it won't have a 10 year life in sales terms any more than the NES had a 20 year life... I would even doubt it having a ten year life by the launch>discontinued span (which means when Sony stop making them) The PS1 only just lasted 10 years by that definition... PS3 is not as popular and Sony are unlikely to keep it in production when it sells next to nothing.
My predictions:
PS2 sold after 10 years (lifetime) about 140m but with piracy
PS3 sold after 10 years (lifetime) about 120m but without piracy
Profits:
140m PS2 with piracy <<<<<<<<<<<<<< that 120m PS3 without piracy
(Erm... you realise the "era" of PS2 made Sony over $2.3 billion... and that includes losses from PSP,... (although it also includes some PS1 profits)... My bet is when PS2 is done selling, if we could seperate it out it would have made between 3.5 and 4 billion $.
The PS3 meanwhile (if we could seperate) has lost over 4 billion already, probably nearer 5
Blu-ray victory >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that 20m console less on the market (140m - 120m)
The profits that will bring Blu-ray victory will be enormous for the next 15 years.
Now that blue-ray has won, we can say that the strategy of sony to include Blu-ray in PS3 was great.
In addition:
WII sold after 5 years (lifetime) about 80m (2011) (Hah!)
PS3 sold after 5 years about 60m (2011) (could be close to that, but it will be slowing down by then)
xbox360 sold after 6 years about 45m (2011) / after 5 years about 40m (2010)
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xbox360 sold after 7 years (lifetime) about 50m (2012)
PS3 sold after 6 years about 75m (2012) / after 7 years about 90m (2013)
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PS3 after 10 years (lifetime) about 120m (2016)
In conclusion:
Sony in this next-gen will be strong as in the PS2 generation and in addition thanks to PS3, Blu-ray has won the formats war.
M$ in this next-gen sell twice that with xbox 1.
Nintendo has returned strong, as in the past.
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