@Anyone guessing below 16 million for the end of Calendar Year,
Doing an extremely conservative estimate of sales....
Warning In-Depth Numbers Breakdown imminent.....
Current mid-summer sales have been around 938k a month (avg'ing from the week ending March 6th until the week ending July 15th). All signs currently point to increased numbers due to major new releases in the coming days, so lets take the extremely conservative estimate and say that it will sell at the same rate for the start of July through the end of October.
This gives us end of October total sales of 12,802,000.
Now looking at last november the Wii sold +500k in Nov during a single week of sales, this is not very telling since it was launch week. So lets look at DS numbers which did about 2.24 Million last Nov amid a massive onlsaught from the console gaming market. The average monthly sales for Sept and Oct for the DS were 1,527,343 which means it had about a 50% increase in sales in November. Applying a similar growth rate to the Wii based on our already conservative 938k number we get 1,407,000, but lets shave 107k off that just to make sure we are extremely conservative! So our Nov number is 1.3 million despite the launch of SMG on Nov 20th.
This gives us end of November total sales of 14,102,000.
Now for december if we look back to last year we see that the Wii did 2,504,465 in Dec during its launch. To estimate anything less than 2.5 million is really out there I think, but lets go ULTRA conservative and call it 2 million this Dec.
This gives us end of December total sales of 16,102,000.
So lets shave off 102,000 units and just say "Well maybe we weren't quite conservative enough!" and so with that we get the absolute minimum! In my mind this represents the point at which you are not even considering the numbers anymore (if you guess less than this). This is the lower boundry of lower boundries! The Wii limbo pole goes down NO FURTHER!! Paper Mario will not fit under this bar! etc.....
Enjoy~
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