PS3 will reach 40 million consoles LTD by end of 2009

[mitsuhide]

40 millions by December 31st 09 is a decent, 70 million for Wii is probable if the sales stay the same and 35 million for the X360 is probably market saturation for the X360 given the Xbox userbase was around 23-25 million, the reason i say that is because 08 will most likely be the X360's golden year for sales as it is averaging about double what it was last year and with nothing major yet announced for next year on Xbox 360 then this year will be the best X360 year to date and probably MS's best year in the Gaming so far (over the whole Xbox and X360 LTD)

With FFXIII releasing next year on PS3 in Japan (S-E announced today at their weekend party event, where something big is announced tomorrow for PS3) then the PS3 will see a very nice and sustained sales boost in Japan for a few weeks unless released in the holiday season where the numbers will be even higher. I say this because of the sales boost the original PS got from FFVII even though FFXIII is on X360 in the US and Europe the PS3 will get the highest SW and HW sales from FFXIII due to it still being PS3 exclusive in Japan (where the FF series makes the most of its sales).

My predictions for LTD sales by the end of '09 are as follows even though it is a ridiculous thing to predict as we haven't even had holiday 08 yet and those sales might give us a better outlook at what will happen in 09

PS3 average this year is - 206,930 (weekly average WW in the first 26 weeks of the year)
Wii average this year is - 385,963
X360 average this year is - 153,979

End of year totals for 08
PS3 - Sold roughly 5 million in the first half of 08 and with the holiday season will probably sell around 8 million in the 2nd half of 08 meaning that the total LTD by the end of 08 for the PS3 will be around 22.5 million.

Wii - Sold roughly 9.5 million in the first half of 08 and will most likely sell 15 million in the second half meaning an LTD of 45 million by the end of 08.

X360 - Sold roughly 3.7 million in the first half of 08 and will most likely sell around 6 million in the 2nd half meaning an LTD of 26 million by the end of 08.

With the Wii still selling like hotcakes through 2008 means that it will probably still be selling like hotcakes during 09 based on the DS sales which haven't slowed down for along time. Even though the Wii is at a higher price than the DS Nintendo could probably lower the price by at least $50 if they really wanted to get even more sales or the X360 and PS3 prices become 'to close for comforts' to the Wii price point.

The PS3 selling more than twice than it did last year at the same price point is something that is very impressive to say the least, just how did Sony do it? I have no idea and that would be a different thread for the end of the year when the numbers are in. With Sony most likely dropping the price next March/April time after there FY results. The PS3 will be at a $299 in the US and most likely £250 in the UK then it will have either same or higher sales next year compared to this year.

The X360 is doing very well compared to last year as well, this is however has an explanation unlike the PS3 sales, it is because of the price cut the system received last year (or was it this year i can't remember). With the X360 having nothing major in store for next year (that we know of) it is difficult to say what will happen, it will most likely receive a price cut to keep the current sales next year and to stay competitive with the PS3 price cut next year.

End of '09 sales predictions
PS3 - Selling a total of 7'491'802 in 2007 and approximately a total of 13'640'774 in 2008 (based on my end of 08 predictions).

Using the weekly averages from 08 of 206'930 and saying the system will sell exactly the same next year that it did this year the PS3 should reach the total of 10'760'360 (206'930 * 52). Now adding the other 3 million due to the holiday season making the total 13'640'774 the PS3 LTD end of 09 total is:

22'500'000 + 13'640'774 = 36'140'774 which is 4 million LOWER that the OP's(sorry i can't remember your name) prediction for the PS3 BUT if the PS3 gains an extra 4 million sales next year on top of the this as it will do this compared to last year then the End of 09 LTD for the PS3 would be 40'140'774 sold, spot on what the OP predicted.

Wii - Selling a total of 24.5 million through 08 (using my predictions) means that the Wii will reach a total of 69'500'000 LTD End of 09.

X360 - Selling a total of 9.7 million through 08 (using my predictions) means that it will reach a total of 35'700'000 LTD End of 09.

In easy graph reading:
End of '09 totals
Wii - 69.5 million
PS3 - 36 million - 40 million
X360 - 35.7 million

Anyone disagree with my math? please do tell me :)