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Its tough to say ...

I would say that 35 Million is a safe 'Middle of the Road' estimate for the PS3 if Sony does what is necessary to maintain their sales pace. Sony does face a certain risk of being at 32 Million (or less) if they keep the PS3 at above $399 until after they have saturated the market, third party publishers reduce their focus on the HD consoles at a rate greater than most of us would expect, and Nintendo (possibly with the Wii MotionPlus) is able to push Wii demand further at the expense of HD consoles. At the same time there is a chance that Sony could sell 38 Million (or more) if they agressively price the PS3, Blu-Ray really starts to have mainstream apeal, and they're able to expand upon their third party support.