thx1139 said:
Wow there is some drinking going on in this thread.
First off PS3 will still be behind the 360 at the end of 2009.
Sony estimated 10 million PS3 sold during the current Fiscal year and if I remember correctly they have sold 1.5 million so far and the Fiscal year ends the end of March 2009. So PS3 hits Sonys estimate will be at about 23 million.
You really expect another 17 million in 9 months. Yeah right.
Look when FFXIII comes out the 360 in NA and Europe will already be the JRPG console. So many of the potential customers will be 360 owners. This will limit any short term bump the PS3 would have gotten. Now lets assume that I am wrong on this last point. Lets assume the PS3 is already at 25 million consoles sold and FFXIII releases. A very large percentage of people that wanted FFXIII and a PS3 will already have a PS3 by then. Again limiting any bump. See what happened with MGS4 for proof of this.
Now the GT5 argument. How many people that already purchased GT5P will be the first to purchase GT. I would expect that nearly all 2 million people (that is sales right now) will be GT5 purchasers and that means they wont be purchasing a PS3 for GT5. That is just the 2 million console owners now that already purchased GT5P, certainly by the end of 2009 many more people with PS3 will be GT5 purchasers. Again not causing a bump when a piece of software comes out. So many people here seem to believe that when GT5 comes out that everyone that wants it doesnt have a PS3 yet (same goes for FFXIII)
There is nothing on the horizon that will cause the PS3 to all of a sudden take off in sales to be able to sell 26 million in less than 1.5 years.
Oh by the way when stand alone Blu Ray players expected at about $200 for the Holidays 2008. Dont expect the PS3 to be picked up as the cheapest Blu Ray player come the Holidays.
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If that is true then the PS3 price would drop. But I doubt there would be a Blu Ray player going for $200 in the near future.
