A little too optimistic to be realistic, especially at a $399 entry point.
$299 would be a different story, but... I'd be very surprised to see that even by the 09 holiday season.
Additional die shrinks for both the RSX and CBE, along with reduced costs for BR diodes should help, but it's still too early for a PS3 slimline. Typically it takes a good 4-5 years from debut.
Although the PS3 is easily the console that can and will be reduced in price (both production cost and retail cost) over debut more than any other console to die a natural death, it's still going to take longer than three years.
Realistically, sales around 35 million is pretty generous, not taking any drastic, unexpected price cuts into consideration. But I think at this point, Sony's plan is and will continue to be pursuing increased profitability since the SCE division has been hurting company's stock due to under performance.
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