I certainly find it pretty interesting that you've come this close but I would suspect that there is more profit in the PS2 HW and SW and more loss in the PS3. From your data above:
PS2 HW = 1.51 million @ $10(*) net profit = $15.1(*)
PSP HW = 3.72 million @ $8(*) net profit = $29.8(*)
PS3 HW = 1.56 million @ loss of $60(*) per unit = $93.6(*) LOSS
PS2 SW = 19.3 million @ $2(*) profit = $38.6(*)
PSP SW = 11.8 million @ $2(*) profit = $23.6(*)
PS3 SW = 22.8 million @ $2(*) profit = $45.6(*)
According to a CNNMoney and Forbes article (forbes in 2k6, CNN 2K1), new release software for Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft garners a licensing fee of about $7-8 on each title sold. It is certainly less on "budget" titles but I would expect it to be roughly proportional. So, say a $60 PS3 game gets 8 bucks, a $30 ps3 game nets 4 bucks in Sony's pocket. Getting an exclusive might reduce or eliminate it as well. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say something like $3, $4, 5$ would be better numbers for psp, ps2 and ps3 games, respectively. I could be totally in the dark here but that would mean the hardware is burning more cash.
There was another article in VGC somewhere that talked about overall losses in game creation at Sony, MS, and Nintendo. How do those numbers factor into this model?
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