Let's see. They shipped about 5M in the last quarter and about 4M the quarter before that right? Given that many units in January were airshipped for last xmas and that the production increae is kicking in now I expect 6 million for the next quarter so it should be about 35.5M shipped by sep 08.
I expect them to be able to ship about 12-13 milions in the third quarter (really big stockpile this year+ production increase+ possibly more airfreighting) so they should be at around 47-48M shipped by end of CY 08. Add in a lean january (though first 2 weeks in Japan should be big) and we get about 50 million shipped around mid-february 09m add 3 weeks for the shipped->sold lag and we get:
Week ending 7th of March 09.
It's a rough estimate so I wouldn't be surprised if I was a few weeks off but it shouldn't be more than a month off.
Also, to all those using Nintendo's shipping estimates for the year, don't forget that they are very conservative and prefer to aim low and revise higher (like last year) than aim high and miss the target so unless sales start to seriously dip their number should be taken as a low end estimate.
"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"
