Microsoft FY End Jun 2007 and FY end Jun 2008 – A MORE THOROUGH ANALYSIS

[kn]

Bumidan,

I've read through this twice now and I think you've done an exceptional job breaking down what you can and using microsoft's statements about increases and decreases to arrive at what are probably quite accurate numbers. This assumes that they behave somewhat rationally and attribute revenues and expenses in their proper (and proportional) places. I don't believe there is much more that can be done other than hang on to this model and refer back to your model each quarter. As long as they continue to provide X increased 50% and Y decreased 10%, and so on, you can get closer and closer to having very accurate numbers. I, for one, very much appreciate your efforts.

One thing I take from this and you said it in your own post... I don't see a clear path for EDD to make a big profit going forward. Expenses have to go down, revenues have to come, overall profit margins need to increase, or some combination of the three.

I would enjoy some trend analysis. What would it take to start making a significant amount of money? What will next quarter look like if current trends continue? And so on. You have already spent an enormous amount of time on it, though. How effing cool would it be to predict EDD's profit for next quarter and be within 5-10%? You've got some market data to play with from NPD and VGC...