Doing my standard calculations without a price drop it will sell less than or equal to about 19 million. The problem you run into is unlike last year Sony will probably not be able to drop the price like they did by $100 last year. The $399 price point helped the sales a bit last year, but if you add in everything we have seen and heard from Sony thus far this year a price drop is probably not in the cards. My best bet is a pack-in and without that kind of price drop like last year you may very well see sales at about what we saw last year. One also needs to take into account how long before Sony actually gets the new 80GB SKUs to the channel because if it is going to be Sept or late August they will lose some serious sales in the time being.
Also of note, they sold ~4.9 million last year at this time to the end of the year. Factoring this with no price drop unlike last year with shortages I stick to about ~19 million sold by year end.
