bumidan on 29 July 2008
| dallas said: It's been forever since I took the financial modeling class, but it does seem a bit unusual to try to figure out the next quarter's HW&SW sales as based on this quarter's profits. It might be a better idea to use traditional fin modeling techniques like projecting CF's, AR, liabilities, etc. In the real world fin modeling ain't just a simple cut and dry thing, and even a lot of financial professionals w/ MBAs and Certified Financial Analyst certifications (basically the only cert out there for the equity analysts that do modeling need) have a hard time with it, but seriously, good try mate, as a lot of times, I think that a lot of times, a fairly intuitive guess would work just as well as anything else, I mean I guessed around -10 to -20 million yen and things were a bit better than I expected, but I was definitely in the ballpark. If you think that you'll like fin modeling, it would be a great idea to take a lot of accounting classes, b/c you'd need to know how all of the asset/Liab/OE classes affect each other to produce the big picture. Cheers. |
Thanks for the advice. Unfortunately, there is no other data to do that type of modeling - unless you have other sources.
That's why you can check out my MSFT thread (PLEASE.....) - that gives a bit more detail if we have some line items we can work with. I would really like some comments there too. I expect it of you :)
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=35336&start=0
Therefore, I can only work with the Sony numbers we have been given.
I suppose you can use intuition to guess the numbers, but of course, just like in any matter, if you have at least some basis to back up your projections, then at least you have a foundation you can build on.
Thanks for the feedback.
