I'm going with 42.5k.
Points in favor:
1- It's the fourth in the series, which should make it quite frontloaded (at least in terms of the hardcore franchise fans).
2- It's a game in an underrepresented genre in Wii's library (but I believe this will manifest itself more through legs than first week sales).
Points against:
1- It's not on Playstation like the previous games, but this is countered by what's likely a hardcore fan group of this franchise who will buy a Wii if they don't already have one.
2- It's a slow period of the year.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957







