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the wii - will reach 50% Marketshare- maybe 60% but that imo is the most it'll go.

that said you have a new ip you want to market to, do you

1- go HD multiconsole with the expense increase?

2- go wii with exclusive rights, ~1/3rd less cost and an equal number of consoles avail.

that is the question you need to ask, which console would be a "safer" bet.

as we can see from the sales of ALL video games, the more effort you put in, the better your chance of it being a success...

personally if i was taking that bet i'd do a great wii game...lower cost, about the same % of gamers on each system, and you have that "exclusivity" mystique to help....