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makingmusic476 on 28 July 2008
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So far this year, the ps3 has sold ~5.6 million units globally, while the 360 has only sold ~4.0 million units.  The ps3 has sold roughly 40% more than the 360 so far this year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3&cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39453&end=39649

The 360 has sold ~4.0 million units this year compared to just ~2.5 million units in the same time frame last year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39089&end=39278

That's roughly a 60% increase in sales year over year.

Now assuming that it has a similar increase over the holiday season (I'll use the beginning of November to the end of December in this case...), then the 360's holiday sales for this year would probably be around 5.4 million, compared to just 3.4 million last year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39390&end=39453

Of course, that is a highly unlikely scenario, given the fact that the 360 had a very slow start to last year, and very big finish due to Halo 3 + price drop, leading me to believe that the 360 won't have the same percentage increase during the end of the year as it has had during the beginning.

Anywho, assuming the ps3 stays a consistent 40% above the ps3 for the remainder of the year, than this would imply that the ps3 will sell around 7.56 million units over the holidays, thus shaving off ~2 million from the 360s lead.

Of course, it's not likely that the ps3 WILL sell 7.5 million over Nov-Dec, much like it's not probable that the 360 will sell 5.4.

However, it IS probable that the 360 could sell ~4 million units this year, with the ps3 selling ~5.6 million units, still shaving off a whole ~1.6 million in just two months.

In the end, I believe that the ps3 WILL pass up the 360 in 2009. It will happen no later than the end of the year, and could happen earlier, depending on when GT5 releases and when FFXIII hits in Japan. I had originally estimated that the ps3 would surpass the 360 around the middle of '09, but now that it seems GT5 and FFXIII probably won't release until very late '09 or even 2010, so it's a bit unlikely to happen that early. But it could, no doubt about it.