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its all going to come down to pricing: a) have big a financial hit on their profits are sony prepared to take on pricing vs production cost and b) how much can sony cost reduce the ps3.

with the reality that the Wii will sell the most consoles this generation Sony will have reduced their expectations so i doubt they will be too competitive with the pricing.

2010 in the 3/4 quarter would be my bet right now but it all comes down to the pricing.