Lord N on 27 July 2008
The next generation will start as soon as either the second or third place console starts to see its sales drop off and/or lose third party support.
Typically, a console only sees a lifespan of more than five years if it's extremely popular/dominant (NES, Game Boy, PS2) because there is no reason to hurry another one to market when the current console is seeing so much success and making so much money. This is clearly not the case with either the 360 or the PS3. For one thing, they aren't popular in all markets. For another thing, they aren't exactly raking in the cash, either. Maybe MS's Entertainment and Games division posted profits, but that division also includes several other products and services, and the quarter before last, it only posted a profit of 89 million dollars, which seems very odd if the 360 itself is indeed profitable. Last quarter, it actually posted a loss of 188 million dollars.
Lastly, while the sales of the PS3 and 360 are up from last year, they are still nothing to write home about. To sum things up, neither the 360 or the PS3 have the mass appeal nor the profits to last for an exceptionally long period of time, so one of them will release a successor by 2011 at the latest.
Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3
