Below I've copied and pasted the predictions I made in Dec. 07 for this year just to take a public look at how I've fared so far. I've colour coded them as follows: Green - Looks more likely to happen (than in '07) Yellow - Iffy. Could go either way Red - Looks (more) likely to be wrong The Great Gamerace's Prediction:
Wii will have sold 55-65m Wii's by the end of '08 - Production hasn't been brought up to a level to support this prediction. Most likely wrong. 45m seems very likely at this point.
Wii will have greater than 50% marketshare, I'd guess 55% by Dec 31st '08 - Every week it's marketshare is increasing so this is looking good!
360 will continue to own NA and continue to outsell PS3 ever increasing the disparity between them - Blu-ray victory has boosted NA sales of PS3 putting this prediction in doubt. However 360 may still outsell PS3 in NA over the course of the year
PS3 will continue to own Europe and continue to outsell 360 ever increasing the disparity between them - Clearly this is truth
Wii will continue to dominate in all markets. - Right again!
Once WiiFit launches, Europe will become's Wii's strongest market (although it'll be looking more and more like Sony has a real chance until then) - NA Wii sales are still very strong but Wii/DS seems to be dominating Europe even more than in NA as the fact the Nintendo owned all top 10 software spots this week shows. Continued US weakness should also mean more Wii's shipped to Europe instead. However for arguments sake NA moves a greater # of Wiis/week.
MSG4 will come to the 360 - Now that FFXIII is coming to 360 can this be far behind?
Kingdom Hearts 3 will be announced for the Wii - I only put this is yellow because we may not get a KH3 announcement at all this year.
GTA 3 compilation will come to Wii and do amazing sales, generating more revenue than GTA4 and prompting Take 2 to totally reaccess their stance on the Wii. - Doesn't look likely but could happen especially if EA buys them out.
Take 2 will merge or get purchased - Almost certain now.
By the end of the year there will be rumours of another major company (or companies) going to enter the video game market but no formal announcements. - We have to wait until the end of the year for this one.
Microsoft will aggressively fight for Europe with mixed results. - Price cut and mixed results
MS will have it's best year ever in Japan, but it'll still be insignificant. - Sales have increased but still insignificant
Wii will develop a catalogue of games that like those on the DS will forever sit in the top 50 sales charts. - WiiFit, MarioKartWii, WiiPlay all showing exactly this type of 'evergreen' sales. SSBB, SMG less so.
And my boldest and crazist prediction - Zack & Wiki will hit 1m sales (but this might be in '09) - Sales are off the charts!! But off the wrong side. Price can't go lower. Only thing that'd get this moving again is a sequel and that's not coming anytime soon - if at all. :(
Feel free to comment or reflect on your own predictions
