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Gears is not the hype machine that halo is but MS will do their upmost to make it as near to as possible. The marketing of the original Gears has to be the best marketing of any game (not console) this generation, everyone remembers the main advert.

I think it will hit 3.5 million in its first month with first week sales of 1.5 million.

I dont really know about Resistance2 but Sony should market the hell out of it. I think it will open around 750k and hit ~ 2 million in its first month.

The Gears calculation is based on ~ 50% increase in first week sales over Gears1 and the Res2 sales based on 100% increase over Res1.