The 10 year life cycle is not a right to all Sony consoles. It is a prize to the victors.
Once a new console is released the core gamers flock away from the older consoles. The casual audience is the one keeping older systems alive with sports sequels and such.
The PS3 has far less casual appeal than the PS2 or PS1 ever did so they won't enjoy that long life. Once MS releases a new console, Sony will have to follow suit within a year or so to avoid giving MS an overwhelming lead. And when they do the PS3 will for all intents and purposes be dead.
Sony can't just take the casual for granted and think that they will flock to them when the PS3 goes below $300. By the time they can get the PS3 priced down to mass consumer level, the Wii will have cornered the casual market. BR won't help at that point either. There are some standalone BR players already cheaper than the PS3. By the time one of them hits $200 consumers will grab that instead of a PS3. It won't matter if the PS3 is still the superior BR player. The type of consumer who waits for such a drop is usually one who doesn't know or doesn't care about certain features like updated BR profiles.
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