Is this intended for a worldwide win or an American win?
This holiday season I'm only sure of three things worldwide:
- Japan is Nintendo's bitch right now (Dragon Quest IX has yet to come for the DS!). Considering the strength of PSP and Wii, I expect PS3 to come in 4th (for hardware-sales) over the holidays in Japan. With low hardware sales, don't expect big software sales no matter how good the games are.
- Microsoft's marquee game is coming to the USA in September (Halo 3), followed by the most significant 3rd party sequel in October (GTA IV). Sony has GTAIV, but with Metal Gear Solid 4 delayed not out until 2008 what will match Halo 3? Killzone 2? To beat Halo 3 at the PS3 price point I would say it has to be better than Halo 3 - alot better - even if it is, the hype of Halo 3 is unlikely to be matched by Killzone 2.
- Sony is no longer the defending champ either. Last holiday season Sony was outsold by both Microsoft and Nintendo worldwide.
There is no doubt in my mind that PS3 will have a better holiday season than last year (by virtue of European sales, and general availability alone), but I suspect it will be comparable in terms of numbers to Gamecube/Xbox worldwide holiday sales in 2002 or 2003.
2008-2010 will be better for PS3 when the sales are no longer are blocked by the $600 stigma.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
