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The original prediction was:

 

Revenue: 1,780(*) million

Profit: 100(*) million

 

Again, here was the original thread:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=31432&start=0

 

Let’s take a look at Revenue:

 

This is where the BIGGEST mistake was.  (Note:  When I did the MSFT projections, maybe I wasn’t thinking too much or too optimistic, either or, BIG MISTAKE)

 

In projecting $1,780(*) in revenue, I projected 2.1(*) million consoles to be sold.  The actual number reported was 1.3 million consoles sold.  That’s a huge difference and basically explains the revenue variance of +13%

 

Using the EXACT SAME NUMBERS and assumptions, if I changed the consoles sold to 1.3 million, the projected revenue would be $1,501(*).

 

This would only represent an actual variance of $74(*) million or -4.6%, well within the 5% variance range