| DMeisterJ said: I think it's gonna happen. |
Well, you can watch it weekly to see if the PS3 is on track. It needs to average selling 80,000 units world wide more than 1 in 4 each week in order to make up this distance. The holiday season is a wild card because everyone will be selling a ton and it will depend a lot on deals this year, I think.
To give you an idea of how the PS3 is doing, let's look at data over the last two available weeks.
27 June 08
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Wii: 490K
PS3: 169K
360: 130K
PS3 exceeded 1 in 4 by: -38K
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20 June 08
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Wii: 342K
PS3: 186K
360: 123K
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PS3 exceeded 1 in for by: 10K
Looking at the available data for July 5th, it looks like the PS3 is selling less than 25% in that week also.
Looking at the others/japan data for July 12th, it looks like the PS3 is less than 25% again. American data won't help it unless the Wii has an off week.
For each of those weeks, the PS3 is going to have to make up that 80K in another week or combination of weeks. And it looks like this trend is going to continue for a while.
Go back a bit further and we see the little MGS 4 bump and then the very weak weeks pre-MGS 4. The fact is that the last two weeks combined would end up being reasonably average, or even slightly strong for the PS3 compared to the rest of the summer. To recap, what we're observing is that the PS3 is barely reaching 25% sales on a week-to-week basis and it's coming nowhere nearly the additional 80K it would need to reach 25% by year end.
Saying that some magic will happen during the holiday season is a lot of hand waving. The PS3 is currently 2.08 million units short of 25% according to VGC -- let me know when it closes that gap by 1/10th: 1.90 million units short of 25%. If you want to close this gap in 6 months, including holidays, then surely you'd expect 1/10th of that gap to be closed every non-holiday month even counting on magic during the holidays.
