There has been a lot of discussion in the last couple of days about the possibility of a comeback in the format wars by the HD DVD format.  Many of the protests to this possibility have come from PS3 owners and have ranged from reasonable arguments why a comeback won't or shouldn't happen through to "IT CANT HAPPEN OMG NOESSSSSSS!!!"  Irrespective of this, it got me thinking about the consequences of Sony's decision to include Blu-Ray in the PS3, both from my personal perspective, and in an industry-wide sense.

Scenario 1: Blu-Ray wins. 

Many people, especially PS3 owners (not all of them, the vast majority are clear-thinking, intelligent people), believe that a decisive Blu-Ray victory in the format wars would result in a rise in the uptake of PS3's however this is not the case.  By all accounts the PS3's player is a competent one, but by no means the best.  Technophiles and early adopters will purchase the best, stand-alone players avaliable.  Indeed, many of them have already done so, and any benefit the PS3 may have received from this is, in my opinion, behind us.  

On the other hand, casual adopters of the format will not opt for a PS3 for different reasons.  We've seen from the frenzy at Walmarts over the weekend that pricing matters to the mass market.  The $99 Walmart player seems to have sold out nation-wide.  But though it may be the cheapest Blu-Ray player now, the PS3 will not be the cheapest player by the time any Blu-Ray players reach mass market (sub $200US) prices.  For example, we are only just talking about the possibility of a $99 PS2, nearly a decade after its release, and it started out far cheaper than the PS3. The casual adopter would go for cheap, stand-alone players in the event of a Blu-Ray victory.

Scenario 2: Blu-Ray loses. 

Whilst Blu-Ray may not be able to help the PS3, it will be disastrous for the console if Blu-Ray loses.  If the format fails Sony will lose all cost-reducing benefits it is currently receiving from economies-of-scale production of Blu-Ray laser diodes.  In any event, it will be 10-15 years before Blu-Ray drives are as cheap to produce as DVD drives, even if Blu-Ray were to win. The result would be an expensive games console with a redundant piece of technology driving up the price.  From a personal perspective, it had been my plan to purchase a PS3 close to launch until I found out the price and the reasoning behind it.  I went with an Xbox 360 because I wasn't going to risk $AU1000 on a console with a piece of technology with no proven gaming benefits that may soon contain a redundent next-generation DVD player. 

Scenario 3: Tie 

In the event of a tie between HD DVD and Blu-Ray, the majority of people will purchase two cheap players, or a combination player (which would quickly become very cheap were it obvious that a tie would be the result of the format war).  The only, and I repeat the ONLY situation in which Blu-Ray will ever be a contributing factor to a large number of PS3 adoptions is if Sony proves beyond doubt, and in a marketable way, that it is necessary for gaming.  So far they have failed to do this.  The Xbox 360 is running games like Oblivion and Mass Effect on single disks, and supposedly blockbuster Sony games like Heavenly Sword are running at under six hours without multiplayer.  It appears GTA IV will be on one disk, and space shortages for almost any game are easily mitigated by downloadable content and mulitple-disks, which in many cases are still cheaper than producing Blu-Ray disks.

Conclusion 

Sony will never collapse, and Blu-Ray, if it succeeds, will provide significant (though non-comparable to DVD) returns to the company.  However, failing a sudden and undeniable proof that Blu-Ray is NECCESSARY, not just desirable for gaming, Blu-Ray will not be a major contributor to any PS3 victory in the console war, but could be a MASSIVE contributor to any PS3 loss. 

First Highlight:

http://www.guidetohometheater.com/hddiscplayers/1206ps3blu/index3.html

Compared to Samsung's BD-P1000 and (briefly) Sony's BDP-S1 as BD players, the PS3 is superior in absolute picture quality to the former, and more than holds its own with the latter. And it kills both in terms of startup and disc access speed and overall ergonomic prowess and stability.

Second Highlight:

HD-DVD and BluRay both use the same diodes.

Also, BluRay is not just for movies. Games are now and will bypass DVD9 size. It's been proven multiple times in the PC industry and the console industry. The size benefit alone if enough to warrant the cost, which is dropping.

 BTW, this has been argued out the ass.  Why are you drumming it back up again?

The way I see it, putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 would be like Nintendo choosing to use a DVD drive on the N64. The added capacity is nice, but the format will not be important to consumers until late in the generation and will push the price of the console out of the range of average consumers.

i stopped reading after the blu-ray wins part...

your thread makes no sense...

first of all, none of the things you said are bad for the PS3 as the title says, even if you were right (you aren't but arguing about that would take more time), making just a few people buy it cause it has blu-ray is better than none, so to put it simple, it is not bad as the title says.

The only good reason why it is bad for the PS3, is the fact that it increases the price, but that has nothing to do with "blu-ray wins, blu-ray loses and tie" scenarios.

HappySqurriel said:

The way I see it, putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 would be like Nintendo choosing to use a DVD drive on the N64. The added capacity is nice, but the format will not be important to consumers until late in the generation and will push the price of the console out of the range of average consumers.

"By all accounts the PS3's player is a competent one, but by no means the best."

Actually bud as of right now it more or less is the best. And its DVD upscaling abilities rank up there with the $1k+ equipment. Not to mention its the only player on the market most likely that can update to Profile 1.1.

"The casual adopter would go for cheap, stand-alone players in the event of a Blu-Ray victory."

That may or may not be true. If the PS3 is only ~$50~$100 more and still one of the top ranked quality players any consumer of partial intelligence will opt for the PS3 most likely. Especially considering its media player capabilities as long as Sony starts to inform consumers about such features.

"Whilst Blu-Ray may not be able to help the PS3, it will be disastrous for the console if Blu-Ray loses. If the format fails Sony will lose all cost-reducing benefits it is currently receiving from economies-of-scale production of Blu-Ray laser diodes."

Do what and what? You realize that both formats use the same laser diode yes? Its not a Blu-Ray laser diode its a Blue Laser diode. Both formats use it. And just so you know they currently run about ~$6-$8 dollars each lol. It might (MIGHT) cost Sony maybe $80 a drive per PS3 now.

(Do you have any clue what you are talking about?)

"which in many cases are still cheaper than producing Blu-Ray disks."

No?? Its cheap as hell to press disks anymore. That cost difference has disappeared. I don't even want to search but google yourself.

"The only, and I repeat the ONLY situation in which Blu-Ray will ever be a contributing factor to a large number of PS3 adoptions is if Sony proves beyond doubt, and in a marketable way, that it is necessary for gaming. So far they have failed to do this."

You are obviously going for flame bait here when you mention the length of Heavenly Sword...

Either way its already proven itself with localization if anything. And "IT WILL" eventually be needed.


Someone just delete this thread please x_x.

 Agree

Sony decided to lose third party developers short run "Quick Bucks" in order to ensure they would leave Sony in the "Long Run"?

The #1 reason why the Playstation and PS2 were so successful was that they took the lead early on, used that lead to attract third party publishers, and moved into a dominant position because they had all of the games. This industry does not support a long run scenario

Eventually is the key word ...

CD was a completely inadequate format for the Playstation and it (probably) had the highest ratio of multi-disc games ever produced for any system, but that doesn't mean that it would have been a good idea for Nintendo to choose DVD for the N64.

A general rule with all forms of development is that you don't gold plate requirements, and you don't design around eventualities, you design around the needs of the moment.

Anyways, the fact is that the point about Heavenly Sword is valid ... You can't claim that Blu-Ray is needed for long in-depth games when the longest and most in-depth game avaiable for the PS3 was released for the XBox 360 on a single DVD (Oblivion).