Why Blu-Ray is bad for the PS3

[Andir]

starcraft said:

There has been a lot of discussion in the last couple of days about the possibility of a comeback in the format wars by the HD DVD format. Many of the protests to this possibility have come from PS3 owners and have ranged from reasonable arguments why a comeback won't or shouldn't happen through to "IT CANT HAPPEN OMG NOESSSSSSS!!!" Irrespective of this, it got me thinking about the consequences of Sony's decision to include Blu-Ray in the PS3, both from my personal perspective, and in an industry-wide sense.

 

Scenario 1: Blu-Ray wins.

Many people, especially PS3 owners (not all of them, the vast majority are clear-thinking, intelligent people), believe that a decisive Blu-Ray victory in the format wars would result in a rise in the uptake of PS3's however this is not the case. By all accounts the PS3's player is a competent one, but by no means the best. Technophiles and early adopters will purchase the best, stand-alone players avaliable. Indeed, many of them have already done so, and any benefit the PS3 may have received from this is, in my opinion, behind us.

On the other hand, casual adopters of the format will not opt for a PS3 for different reasons. We've seen from the frenzy at Walmarts over the weekend that pricing matters to the mass market. The $99 Walmart player seems to have sold out nation-wide. But though it may be the cheapest Blu-Ray player now, the PS3 will not be the cheapest player by the time any Blu-Ray players reach mass market (sub $200US) prices. For example, we are only just talking about the possibility of a $99 PS2, nearly a decade after its release, and it started out far cheaper than the PS3. The casual adopter would go for cheap, stand-alone players in the event of a Blu-Ray victory.

 

Scenario 2: Blu-Ray loses.

Whilst Blu-Ray may not be able to help the PS3, it will be disastrous for the console if Blu-Ray loses. If the format fails Sony will lose all cost-reducing benefits it is currently receiving from economies-of-scale production of Blu-Ray laser diodes. In any event, it will be 10-15 years before Blu-Ray drives are as cheap to produce as DVD drives, even if Blu-Ray were to win. The result would be an expensive games console with a redundant piece of technology driving up the price. From a personal perspective, it had been my plan to purchase a PS3 close to launch until I found out the price and the reasoning behind it. I went with an Xbox 360 because I wasn't going to risk $AU1000 on a console with a piece of technology with no proven gaming benefits that may soon contain a redundent next-generation DVD player.

 

Scenario 3: Tie

In the event of a tie between HD DVD and Blu-Ray, the majority of people will purchase two cheap players, or a combination player (which would quickly become very cheap were it obvious that a tie would be the result of the format war). The only, and I repeat the ONLY situation in which Blu-Ray will ever be a contributing factor to a large number of PS3 adoptions is if Sony proves beyond doubt, and in a marketable way, that it is necessary for gaming. So far they have failed to do this. The Xbox 360 is running games like Oblivion and Mass Effect on single disks, and supposedly blockbuster Sony games like Heavenly Sword are running at under six hours without multiplayer. It appears GTA IV will be on one disk, and space shortages for almost any game are easily mitigated by downloadable content and mulitple-disks, which in many cases are still cheaper than producing Blu-Ray disks.

 

Conclusion

Sony will never collapse, and Blu-Ray, if it succeeds, will provide significant (though non-comparable to DVD) returns to the company. However, failing a sudden and undeniable proof that Blu-Ray is NECCESSARY, not just desirable for gaming, Blu-Ray will not be a major contributor to any PS3 victory in the console war, but could be a MASSIVE contributor to any PS3 loss.

First Highlight:

http://www.guidetohometheater.com/hddiscplayers/1206ps3blu/index3.html

Compared to Samsung's BD-P1000 and (briefly) Sony's BDP-S1 as BD players, the PS3 is superior in absolute picture quality to the former, and more than holds its own with the latter. And it kills both in terms of startup and disc access speed and overall ergonomic prowess and stability.

Second Highlight:

HD-DVD and BluRay both use the same diodes.

Also, BluRay is not just for movies. Games are now and will bypass DVD9 size. It's been proven multiple times in the PC industry and the console industry. The size benefit alone if enough to warrant the cost, which is dropping.

 BTW, this has been argued out the ass.  Why are you drumming it back up again?