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Forums - Sales Discussion - Natal will put 360 on top for the rest of the generation

--OkeyDokey-- on 25 November 2009

That's my crazy prediction.

Following the Natal launch, the Xbox 360 will be the top selling console every month for the rest of the generation (excluding further price drops for PS3/Wii in the future).

I don't expect anyone to agree with me at first (except maybe selnor edit: and starcraft). That's the whole point. That way, when it actually happens everyone will say "omg, OkeyDokey was right. lol, look at the posts on the first page calling him a nutcase" and we'll all have a good laugh.

I actually think it could happen, FYI. For these reasons:

-Early reception is overwhelmingly positive
-3rd party support will be strong
-It will be bundled
-Hype will be massive following the E3 2010 blowout. It will get a ton of awards and mainstream media coverage
-Microsoft will put all their weight behind possibly the biggest videogame related marketing push in history. Will be marketed towards families and casuals

This should be fun.

I'll make a list of supporters so that in the highly unlikely circumstance that I turn out to be wrong, I won't have to be alone in my shame :P

B_E_L_I_E_V_E_R_S:

1. OkeyDokey
2. starcraft
3. FKNetwork
4. xigmund
5. dsister44
6. selnor



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starcraft on 25 November 2009

I think it is very possible you could be correct. Primarily because Microsoft have found what is no doubt a very good and innovative product, which their ENORMOUS funding machine could give the perception of being a truly revolutionary product.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

--OkeyDokey-- on 25 November 2009

Oh, starcraft, I didn't know you were still around. I'll edit the OP.



Avinash_Tyagi on 25 November 2009

On top of Sony, very possible, Wii, not so much



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

--OkeyDokey-- on 25 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
On top of Sony, very possible, Wii, not so much

What do you think Nintendo will do to compete? More price cuts? Vitality Sensor? Please elaborate.

Also, to be clear--I DON'T think the 360 will beat Wii's lifetime sales. I do think the PS3 will be a distant third, though. And Sony's wand will be a flop.



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Lafiel on 25 November 2009

in other words you want the bragging rights? well, good luck



Avinash_Tyagi on 25 November 2009
--OkeyDokey-- said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
On top of Sony, very possible, Wii, not so much

What do you think Nintendo will do to compete? More price cuts? Vitality Sensor? Please elaborate.

Also, to be clear--I DON'T think the 360 will beat Wii's lifetime sales. I do think the PS3 will be a distant third, though. And Sony's wand will be a flop.


   Vitality sensor is part of it, I'm pretty sure Nintendo will be releasing the software to sell much more than 360 even after NATAL



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Hephaestos on 25 November 2009

umh? casuals are never gonna go natal over wii...
The 360 has a "teen gamer" tag on it, along with the "all contreversial games are here" tag, and this has been the case for the past 4 years.

This will be the undoing of natal... at least regarding the casuals, cause I still think it'll be successful, just not even close to Wii successfull.



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Hephaestos on 25 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:


   Vitality sensor is part of it, I'm pretty sure Nintendo will be releasing the software to sell much more than 360 even after NATAL

As much as I like the balance board and motion+, I really have no hope for the vitality sensor...



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Avinash_Tyagi on 25 November 2009

^People said that Wii fit wouldn't sell, and it did, so I'd hold off on passing judgment on the vitality sensor until later



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)