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When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS3 lose its momentum?!

Shane said: N64 was one of the fastest selling consoles. To which I believe the response is: so? If it's still going like this in 6 months, I'll be impressed. Not ready to hand the torch over to Nintendo but impressed nonetheless.
Actually, if you look at the 6 month and 1 year data the N64 did not sell all that quickly ... From another thread
HappySqurriel said: Six Month Totals (North America): Gameboy Advance 3,647,250 N64 2,477,500 PS2 2,450,500 XBox 2,184,500 PSP 2,070,750 Nintendo DS 1,988,750 Dreamcast 1,861,000 Gamecube 1,652,250 XBox 360 1,649,250 Year Totals (North America) Gameboy Advance 7,682,500 PS2 4,643,500 PSP 4,396,250 N64 3,884,000 XBox 3,526,750 XBox 360 3,195,500 Nintendo DS 2,754,000 Gamecube 2,634,500 Dreamcast 2,168,500 Japan 26 week total: Gameboy Advance 3,338,750 PS2 2,911,750 Nintendo DS 2,330,250 PSP 1,566,750 N64 1,403,500 Gamecube 1,251,250 Dreamcast 744,000 XBox 261,250 XBox 360 145,000 Japan 52 week total: Gameboy Advance 5,310,000 PS2 3,867,750 Nintendo DS 3,764,750 PSP 2,336,500 N64 2,191,750 Gamecube 1,580,750 Dreamcast 1,296,000 XBox 378,000 XBox 360 195,500 Combined Totals Japan 26 week and North American 6 month Gameboy Advance 6,986,000 PS2 5,362,250 Nintendo DS 4,401,000 N64 3,881,000 PSP 3,637,500 Gamecube 2,903,500 Dreamcast 2,605,000 XBox 2,445,750 XBox 360 1,794,250 Combined Totals Japan 52 week and North American 12 months Gameboy Advance 12,992,500 PS2 8,511,250 PSP 6,732,750 Nintendo DS 6,518,750 N64 6,075,750 Gamecube 4,215,250 XBox 3,904,750 Dreamcast 3,464,500 XBox 360 3,391,000
The Wii is sitting at 1,918,250 consoles sold with 10 weeks before the 26 week mark, and is sitting at 2,107,500 in North America with 2 months to go before the 6 month mark; this means that its sales will be somewhere between the PS2 and Gameboy Advance when it hits its 26 week/6 month milestone.



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windbane said: gebx said: Also KBG29 - How many of these killer PS3 apps will stay exclusives?? I know those produced by Sony will stay PS3... but the others? If anything, the 360 (and the Wii) are the only systems that can promise to deliver third party exclusives... so don't count your chicks before they hatch ( or is it chickens? or did I completly screw that up?) uhh, why are 3rd party games for 360 going to remain exclusive? elder scrolls didn't remain exclusive, now did it?
It's a myth, Oblivion was never meant to be an exclusive for the 360. All 360 exclusives have a "Only on Xbox 360" stamp on the cover. Samething for Saints Row. Ok, well I wasn't going to mention this but the only exclusive to go to the PS3 is Enchanted Arms.



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Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles. So? Nintendo needs more than a strong launch to be more than third place. What's going to continue demand going forward? Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda can only get them so far. Unless they get some real third party support and not one crappy announcement here and there, there's only so far they can go. I don't see any data that suggests a change to their ranking from last generation, though we may see a boost back toward N64 levels in terms of unit sales.



It's Sony who needs help right now. Nintendo is still selling out after 4 months and 6 million units pretty much on the strength of Wii Sports and Zelda alone.

Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles.
Only in NA, where it also went on to sell a very respectable 20+ million lifetime.
I don't see any data that suggests a change to their ranking from last generation
You are freaking blind. How about this: PS3 February sales NA + Japan: ~265k 360 February sales NA + Japan: ~282k Wii February sales NA + Japan: ~743k And the Wii is still supply constrained.



Shane said: Which supports original post. N64 was one of the fastest selling conoles. So? Nintendo needs more than a strong launch to be more than third place. What's going to continue demand going forward? Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda can only get them so far. Unless they get some real third party support and not one crappy announcement here and there.
You miss that software development needs time. Every title that is upcoming now was planned at least a year ago probably more. Most developers have now rerouted their budgets, now developers or at least more developers are getting accustomed to the Wii and game designs are planned while people were taken from their Xbox 360 and even more PS-3 projects to help for the Wii. You will see the reault in perhaps a year, but then it will be hard to miss.



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Sorry this is somewhat long. Sony’s problem is that it is getting dangerously close to falling into the video game spiral of death. It’s somewhat less apparent at the moment since there are a string of good third party games coming out for the PS3. The reason as mentioned before is that these games were planned, budgeted, and developed over a year ago. Now game companies are looking a year into the future and they see a Wii that will have sold 15+ million (possibly approaching 20 million given the huge casual gamer vein Nintendo tapped) and cost half as much to develop for, an Xbox 360 that will have sold around 15 million and while expensive it’s something they already know the ins and outs of, and the PS3 which short of divine intervention will still be well short of 10 million sold, relatively new development-wise, and costing over twice as much as the Wii to develop for. The game companies are doing that math and understand that the PS3 is not worth supporting alone, or possibly altogether in some cases. The PS3 is going to have a hard time breaking out of this spiral since as someone mentioned “it’s the machine of the future”. Blu-ray offers no benefit unless you have an HDTV which 75% of Americans and 85% of Europeans do not (according to Sony bosses). Even with an HDTV the difference between Blu-ray and DVD are less than that between DVD and VHS. Also the PS2 was $300 not $600 (a price that better stand alone Blu-ray players will soon drop below). PS3 games themselves look little better than Wii games played on SDTV as some developers have noted. Sony has essentially lost the casual gamer who propelled the Playstation and the NES before it to #1. Sony fanboys will of course buy it regardless and that will be enough to sustain at least a Gamecube level existence. However, that is a sad place to be for a former market dominator as Nintendo discovered. Another question would be if Sony can even afford market dominance anymore. Sony is a big company ($60 billion revenue I believe) but the PS3’s losses are enormous even for a company of that size (almost 2 billion so far). They’ve put themselves in the kind of trouble American auto companies are in, they can sell more by lowering price but then they lose even more than before. Shareholders are profit fanboys and nothing else. They loved the PS2 gravy train but will not long tolerate massive losses of the scale the PS3 promises, especially since Sony only recently turned around its troubled money losing electronics division. Despite far greater company profits and lower video game losses even Microsoft is beginning to run into shareholder resistance over the price of the Xbox to company profits. Meanwhile, Nintendo is privately held and raking in more money than all other video game companies combined. Whatever happens this generation the only certainty next generation is that Nintendo will still be there.



Unless the PlayStation brand is abducted by aliens, Sony's fine. They may lose a step, but a lost step off 125+ million isn't a big deal. The big question isn't so much what happens to Sony but to what extent Microsoft and Nintendo can capitalize on it. Nintendo's sold well in its first few months. That we're all well aware of, as it gets beaten into people's heads day in and day out. I'm looking beyond that. While the theory that software development takes time holds water, I have two issues with the theory behind Nintendo support. First is that the system is so underpowered that it makes multiplatform support problematic at best. In the case of many major franchises, it's just simply not going to be technologically possible to release them on Wii, so the best case scenario for something like GTA or FF is a side story or last gen remake. So then we get into exclusives. The most compelling reason I can find for doing an exclusive for Wii is development cost. That's unlikely to win out over the pluses of doing exclusives for Sony or Microsoft, which even takes into account the aforementioned underpowered system issue, as if it's exclusive to PS3 or 360, a port to the other is dirt cheap should a decision be made to remove that exclusivity. I think EA's going about it the right way: release games that take advantage of Wii's capabilities and that you believe will sell only on Nintendo's system anyway.



Shane said: Unless the PlayStation brand is abducted by aliens, Sony's fine. They may lose a step, but a lost step off 125+ million isn't a big deal.
Actually, they have to turn this around ASAP if they want to even stay in the race. If something significant hasn't happened by the end of the year, it's all over. (See albionus post about the circle of death.) The Playstation brand wasn't enough for the PSP and it's doing even less for the PS3. PS2 sold the most last generation because it had the most games, and it had the most games because it very quickly got the biggest installed base.
Shane said:Nintendo's sold well in its first few months. That we're all well aware of, as it gets beaten into people's heads day in and day out. I'm looking beyond that.
You're not really looking beyond it, you're just trying to ignore clear market trends to somehow rationalize an outcome where the console war goes your way. The fact is that success causes success and once the snowball starts rolling it's extremely hard to stop. (Again see albionus post.) No system in history has had such a great start to then simply slow down and die.
Shane said:In the case of many major franchises, it's just simply not going to be technologically possible to release them on Wii, so the best case scenario for something like GTA or FF is a side story or last gen remake.
Not true. Most major franchises went to the PS2 last time because it had the largest installed base (despite both the GC and the Xbox being technologically superior) and they will go to Wii if Wii gets the largest installed base. Dragon Quest is the single largest third party franchise on the Japanese market and it went to the DS for crying out loud.
Shane said:That's unlikely to win out over the pluses of doing exclusives for Sony or Microsoft, which even takes into account the aforementioned underpowered system issue, as if it's exclusive to PS3 or 360, a port to the other is dirt cheap should a decision be made to remove that exclusivity.
Uh, this just means that non-exclusives fit well on PS3 & 360, not that exclusives do. Exclusives always work best on the largest installed base, and that is looking to be the Wii before long. (In fact, right now it's selling significantly more than PS3 & 360 combined.)



That's a lie, plenty of developers have chimed in very positively on the Wii platform & FHC mechanics & gaming possibilities. You're right, Square & Take-Two will develop their own proprietary engines utilizing the Wii's strengths. How's Rare working out for MS? Any GE, PD, DKC, Banjo type platinum hits released yet? I wonder why the Stamper brothers left to form a new studio? Why was the developer/programmer turnover so high there? How's Viva selling? Do not start regarding Rare, they aren't the developers they once were. Sony does indeed have some talented 1st/2nd party dev. groups, but the Playstation has always relied heavily upon 3rd party exclusives to maintain dominance & their marketshare allowed for this. It does not any longer, their arrogance (like Nintendo's once upon a time) has been their undoing.
Just to point out. Sony has blistering 1st party, multiple triple AAA titles. But about Sony. I predict many people to be shaken to there core over the next couple of years with there unfounded and gleeful reporting of playstations demise.



Hus said: robjoh said: Hus said: PS3 has yet to really get going. Lair and Heavenly Sword will show its capability, now it running on brand name alone. So what happend to Gundam, VF5 which should save them in Japan? Their is always a wait for... The same thing did the GC fans do that didn't understand that we got our asses kicked by the mighty PS2. What happend, sales dubbled with Gundam. VF5 sucked. release a good/popular game every month and sale will be high. GC was nothing but Nintendos kiddy games.
Yes the sales doubled, for 1 week. Did it save PS3? Did it pass Wii? Sorry, but no it didn't Wii sales was a all time low but it still sold more than PS3. I don't think PS3 is a bad consol, the graphics is really beutiful BUT I do think that the price is to large.



 

 

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