Thanks for the numbers covering Nintendo's historical position. Too bad numbers from 10 or 15 years ago fail to address: what have they done lately in the console space (sorry, but DS and GBA titles really don't count)? Wii Play/Sports and Zelda pretty much sum up the past few years. The only numbers I posted were post-PS2 launch. 2001 forward, really. In that time, Nintendo games have hit the 4 million mark 17 times to Sony's 2. So all other things being equal, Nintendo's first party would win hands down. Of course, all other things weren't equal with PS2 vs. GC anymore than they are with PS3 vs. Wii. Now, as for the idea that all of Wii's current support was picked up during the GC era... Well... There's been almost 1/3rd as many games announced for Wii as came out during GC's entire lifetime... That's about 225 for Wii, about 700 for GC. PS2 had 2500, and currently PS3 has about the same amount as Wii announced, though they fall behind when adding in downloadable content of course. And with twice the price, they might need twice the games... Note: those numbers for known games are based off of Gamespot and Wikipedia lists.

A price cut is not an automatic way to success. However, PS3 will sell better at $200 than it will at $600. That's just simple economics. Why would GTA and FF appear on the Wii? More to the point: how? DQ I could see as at least a physical possibility because Enix has never been big on technology, but I can't see Take Two or Square wanting to dumb their games down enough to fit on Wii, thus also forcing themselves to ignore Sony and/or Microsoft. If Nintendo hadn't slashed the technology, I could see more potential, but they've cut their own legs off when it comes to franchises like this. What little Sony loses in terms of third parties, they recoup it. As to exclusives, we began to see them disappearing last generation. The cost of games and ease of porting (to 360) makes that a sensible business decision. MySims has Crystal Chronicles written all over it (with the exception that FF is a worthwhile console brand), but even with that said, it is a step in the right direction for Nintendo. Nintendo had a couple good years following Gamecube launch, but we've seen very little out of them until recently aside from the perennial Mario Party. Looking at the Dec 02 TRSTS, I see 168 Gamecube games on the list (12 from Nintendo). Throw in what's going to be released next year and beyond that we already know about, and I'd assume the numbers get pretty similar.

So you really think that Rockstar is going to ignore the Wii? You think that Square-Enix won't allocate more resources to the console that's dominating their homeland? You wrote the reason yourself. Let the PS3 and 360 have almost identical libraries, while the Wii does it's own thing. It also has the potential to be a massive multi-million seller to all 3 regions. Before E3'06 last year pretty much everybody had written off Nintendo in the home console wars. Between E3'06 and launch most were cautiously optimistic, at best. Now we have the Wii breaking record sales and still sold out at the end of March, going into 6 months after launch. The PS3 is faltering bigtime in Japan, with no end in sight for now. North America isn't too far away from this either. Europe's 574k launch with plenty of stock scenario isn't exactly mind-blowing either. The 360 is doing well in North America, so-so in Europe, and non-existant in Japan. Guess who's doing fantastic in all 3 regions?

Lets see... GTA is a series with sales potential around 17 million (PS2+XBox sales of SA=nearly 17 million)... How is that game going to sell that much with current 360+PS3 sales? Does it make sense to spend 25 or 30% more "dumbing down" the game to reach 60% more customers with a Wii version? Even a delayed Wii version? FF13... Square are going to want that to sell 2.5 or 3 million in Japan. PS3 might not reach 2.5 million in Japan until next year sometime... Wii will reach it in a couple months, maybe sooner. They'll want another 4 or 5 million in the rest of the world, too. They might be looking at selling to 80% of the installed base in the West to pull those kinds of numbers. Again, does it make sense to spend 10-15% more for a 360 port, or 25-30% more for a Wii port, to expand your audience several times over? That's what third parties will be asking themselves. Now maybe they'll decide it isn't worth it... But then what about GTAIV 2, or FF14? Is Wii going to have 45 or 50% of the market at that point? Hmm.

This is something I must ask about, Wii is more powerfull than PS2 which had GTA and FF. What is stopping these companies to at least doing spinoff on these series to Wii? Somehow I think this power race isn't that important as some people belive. And here is a difference for Wii, it is actuly having some exclusivs you wont get on either 360 or PS3. So far they might not be that many, or with great names, but some games is coming to Wii that the other consols doesn't have if the sales will keep coming. So far we have: Cooking Mama Red Steel Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz Trauma Center: Second Opinion Sonic and the Secret Rings Elebits Super Swing Golf Up coming is: that dance/rytm game from EA (don't remeber the name) MySims Dragon Quest Swords Dews Adventure No More Heroes RE spinnoff (If I have missed anything please let me know.) Now these games might not be those games that you like but anyway it is showing that their is 3rd party exclusive that in compination with Nintendo games and a low entry cost will strengthen Wii place on the market. Meanwhile PS3 and xbox360 is losing 3rd party exclusives to each others, that might mean that in USA and EU (in japan the xbox360 is dead, so we can forgett about it there) the "war" might become xbox360 and PS3 vs Wii. Of course that is only speculation, but it might mean that Wii will grow strong because of this, which int turn might lead to more exclusiv 3rd party games.

No, Rockstar won't completely ignore Wii. They're giving it Manhunt 2. Behind PS2 and PSP, the Wii version is the most important version of that game. This is the type of support we can expect, though. They're not dumbing down GTA. They're adding a little bit to a last generation game. Maybe they'll also release Double Pack. Then it'll really be a party. The Wii does its own thing of not having as many games. Hardly original. Sims on a console? If they can turn that into a success, which they've been unable to do despite trying for 4 years, I'll be very impressed. This is one of those PC games that needs to stay a PC game. Guess who always does fantastic in all three regions at launch? The key question is whether this thing's got legs. If Nintendo can keep up its current sales for another couple years, it may make sense to do GTA if there's a way (we've heard on more than one occasion how the system's just too underpowered, and the thing just launched). Of course, that's even assuming that 40% userbase = 40% relevant userbase. But let's be real here. If Nintendo's market share ends up much above 20% longer term, it'll be a surprise. Granted, even if they do see the numbers start to add up like you suggest, do you think they'll also see third party sales add up... or just Nintendo's? I have some serious reservations about Sonic's potential success, though Wii's likely where it has the most chance, but it's not like the others aren't getting Sonic. DQS I'm thinking Crystal Chronicles as well, but that will probably end up being the most successful game on that list. Beyond that, I'm yawning, or laughing, or both. Nintendo needs to secure some games that don't make people say "Who cares?" At some point they will, but I don't see why it would even still be the blockbusters. Spinoffs of blockbusters maybe. I'd suggest their Gamecube exclusives at this time were more impressive, with Resident Evil and Rogue Squadron, and even their own internal efforts were far ahead of the technical demos we're getting now.

GTAIV will sell most likely what GTAIII did. GTAIII released at a time the PS2 had around the same sales as what the 360/PS3 will have in November. GTAIII still sold around 4.5m units on the PS2 alone in NA - about 67% of what SA did. I think some are overestimating how well 3rd party games, expecially violent ones, will sell on the Wii. If the Wii really is getting the casual gamers, they aren't going to be interested in virtually maiming and killing prostitutes, nor the open ended gameplay associated with it. The reason Wii Sports is selling well is it's a casual game on a casual system. Wii Sports wouldn't sell good on a PS3 as Sony Sports. A great example is Viva Pinata: It's a fantastic game on a system that it really wasn't designed for. Thats why it's sold 250k. On a Wii, it'd of sold probably near 2m units by now. But on the other hand, Red Steel on the 360 wouldn't sell any better than it did on the Wii, and Gears of War would not be anywhere near the 4m units it's at on the Wii. Developers are going to consider what's going to sell best on the platform, what audience they have, and what games to actually produce for the audiences before they plunge into it. This is both a blessing and curse for the Wii. I still believe the Wii will get pidgeonholed on the 3rd party existing AAA franchise titles. Other than CoD3, no real major AAA titles have been announced as being exclusive or a major new port that the GC didn't have.

I'll say it again, lightsabre Wii or whatever Lucas names it has the potential to be a mega blockbuster. I know a ton of people who would get the Wii for such a title if done right. People have been waiting decades for such a game.

You're making a pretty big leap when you go from "the Wii appeals to casual gamers" to "The Wii only sells to casual gamers". I see plenty in the Wii that appeals to hardcore gamers, including, but not limited to, the Wii experience. I'm fairly confident that the Wii will see plenty of support for adult or violent games. It's already landed franchises the Cube didn't, with Scarface, Godfather and Manhunt. And when you factor in the tremendous support the console will get from Japanese developers (I mean come one, how can it not!?), things will be looking pretty good for the Wii regardless of what kind of game your interested in.

So what happened to the fact that this year more Wii games have been announced than 360 and PS3 combined? This was designed from the ground up for the Wii, and isn't stuck with a gamepad, the wiimote makes all the difference in this game, go look at the videos. :) Yep, that is the question for the wii. Care to guess at what questions the PS3 and 360 have? ;) Suddenly games that could be played on older consoles can't be played on new ones? Blimey! ;) 99.999999998% of the current gaming population is pretty much in disbelief as it is to the current sales situation of the Wii. If I remember my numbers correctly, I believe this year alone worldwide the Wii has over 50% of the "new console" market share. :) 2/3 of the population who bought the PS2 cares. Bigger companies can more easily afford to put big titles with big budgets on the big consoles, but that doesn't describe the whole industry now, does it? Here's my summary. Once it passes the 360 worldwide (which I feel is very certain at this point, however probably not totally until after the halo/gta bump) I think the Wii will have the highest install base for many years, if not until the next generation of consoles. The reason is I think will be the only console of the non-gamer, the main console of the casual, and the 2nd console of the hardcore. Far more hardcore gamers will be willing to buy a PS3/Wii or a 360/Wii than they will a PS3/360, those two are going to be sharing far too many games this generation.