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The OFFICIAL Feb 2007 NPD Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The OFFICIAL Feb 2007 NPD Thread

In a race of three someone has to lose, someone has to win and someone will be the middle man but I don't think anyone will fail.



 

  

 

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Just want to point out that DS sales in February is inflated by Valentine's day sales. The Pink DS was sold out across board, and even the other DS's were hard to find. For half a month at least. DS numbers will fall considerably in comparison in March, but will remain impressive nonetheless. That being said, the fact that the DS is a primary choice as a gift means that it is thoroughly entrenched as a mass consumer electronic, much like the ipod.



the Wii is an epidemic.

I dont know...except for the USA it seems like there is only enough room for one smash hit (10 million in a territory) per generation. Japan is essentially a two-console country, but because there are three horses in that race it divides like 70%-25%-5% or like 65%-20%-15% (in the case of PS1-Saturn-N64). To me that means two consoles could succeed in Japan, but only one does because the 2nd and 3rd guy don't work against the top dog well enough. If there are 25 million unique console owners in Japan per generation, you need 40% to be a success I say..in other words - NES,SNES,PS1,PS2 were successes in Japan. Genesis, Sat, N64, DC, GC, Xbox, 360 are all niches. PS3 is heading there too it seems. Wii appears to be headed for success in Japan. In the USA, you have 60 million unique console owners I'd say. That is why NES, Genesis, SNES, PS1, N64, PS2, Xbox, GC all made it to the 10 million level here. Only the Saturn and Dreamcast did not. Get 17% of the US market and you'll be fine here. All 3 can do that this generation. Europe is between the two I think. But only the NES, SNES, PS1, PS2 have reached the 10 million threshold. However, the market is growing - so I think two out of three will make it this time. The old adage is the world market can support 2.5 consoles. I see it like this: USA - 360, Wii, PS3 all supported - 1 market each Europe - Wii and 360 sell 10 million (2 markets each). PS3 does not (.5 market) Japan - Wii gets 60% of the market, PS3 gets 35%. 360 is 5%.. Imagine the market breaks down like this for a moment NA as 3.5/8 total, Japan as 1.5/8 total, Eur 3/8 total of the market for instance Wii - supported in 3 markets - 1 console PS3 - almost enough support in Japan, enough in the USA, about 1/2 of needed support in Europe...supported in like 2 markets and change if they could be added it would amount to like 6/8 of a console. 360 - support is USA/Eur. Effectively none in Japan. 7/8 of a console. 6.5/8+5.5/8 + 8/8 = 2.5 consoles supported by the market



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Louie said: Well the 360 is for hardcore gamers. And hardcore gamers buy Halo and Gears of War, AND Mass Effect, AND... you know what I mean. It´s Microsofts biggest sucess and their biggest problem that they can just get the hardcore crowd...
Well the 360 isn't cheap. The PS3's price has tended to take peoples eyes off the fact that the 360 is $400. Not only that its been out for over a year and it has not had a price drop. There are gamers out there, they are the majority, that won't spend over $200 for a system. The 360 and PS3 are outside of the impulse buying range of most consumers. It doesn't matter how many games either system receives for this segment of the population. They won't cross that $200 barrier. Before anyone asks about the Wii, I think the inclusion of Wii Sports helps sell the Wii to this part of the market. I think the consumer sees that Wii games cost $50 and that they are getting a "$50 value" out of the Wii Sports pack in.



Bycha said: Seriously NPD threads without software suck. You don't see the whole picture.
Here we go Pos - System - February 2007 - Januar 2007 - December 2006 - November 2006 1 Nintendo DS 485.000 (+102 %); 239.000 (- 85 %); 1,6 Mio. (+ 75 %); 918.000 2 Wii 335.000 (- 23 %); 435.503 (- 28 %); 604.200 (+ 27 %); 476.000 3 PlayStation2 295.000 (- 1 %); 299.352 (- 79 %); 1,4 Mio. (+110 %); 664.000 4 Xbox 360 228.000 (- 22 %); 294.000 (- 73 %); 1,1 Mio. (+115 %); 511.000 5 PSP 176.000 (- 17 %); 211.000 (- 78 %); 953.200 (+131 %); 411.900 6 GBA 136.000 (- 24 %); 179.000 (- 79 %); 850.700 (+ 25 %); 641.000 7 PlayStation3 127.000 (- 48 %); 243.554 (- 50 %); 490.700 (+149 %); 197.000 8 Gamecube 24.000 (- 29 %); 34.000; -; - 9 Xbox 480;-;-;- cumulated hardware base USA Pos. – system – units 1 PlayStation2 37.695.000 2 Game Boy Advance 35.436.000 3 Xbox 14.500.480 4 Gamecube 11.724.000 5 Nintendo DS 9.885.000 6 PSP 7.076.000 7 Xbox 360 5.028.000 8 Wii 1.835.000 9 PlayStation3 1.060.000 S O F T W A R E ================ TOP 10 softare sales February 2007 Pos. System Titel Publisher units sold ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 360 Crackdown Microsoft 427.000 2 Wii Wii Play w/ Remote Nintendo 371.000 3 NDS Diddy Kong Racing Nintendo 262.000 4 Wii Legend of Zelda: The Twilight Nintendo 30.000 5 PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/Guitar Red Octane 130.000 6 360 Gears of War 119.000 7 360 Major League Baseball 2K7 2K Sports 113.000 8 360 Lost Planet: Extreme Condition Capcom 111.000 9 Wii Wario Ware Smooth Moves Nintendo 109.000 10 360 NBA Street Homecourt EA 102.000 Others: System - titel – Publisher – units sold 360 Viva Pinata - Microsoft 18.000 NDS Hannah Montana DS - Buena Vista 30.000 PS3 Resistance: Fall of Man - Sony 70.000 PS3 Virtua Fighter 5 - Sega 53.000 TOP 3 SYSTEM: Xbox 360 1. Crackdown - Microsoft 2. Gears of War – Microsoft 3.Major League Baseball 2K7 - Take 2 Interactive Wii. 1.Wii Play - Nintendo 2. Zelda: Twilight Princess – Nintendo 3. Warioware: Smooth Movies – Nintendo PlayStation 3 1. Resistance: Fall Of Man – Sony 3. Virtua Fighter 5 - Sega 4. Major League Baseball 2K7- Take 2 Interactive PlayStation 2 1. Guitar Hero 2 with guitar - Activision 2. MLB '07: The Show – Sony 3. WWE Smackdown Vs. RAW 2007 - THQ Handhelds 1. Diddy Kong Racing - Nintendo, Nintendo DS 2. New Super Mario Bros. - Nintendo, Nintendo DS 3. Mario Kart DS - Nintendo, Nintendo DS Enough data now?



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Normally we get top 10 for each platofrm...



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Darc Requiem said: Louie said: Well the 360 is for hardcore gamers. And hardcore gamers buy Halo and Gears of War, AND Mass Effect, AND... you know what I mean. It´s Microsofts biggest sucess and their biggest problem that they can just get the hardcore crowd... Well the 360 isn't cheap. The PS3's price has tended to take peoples eyes off the fact that the 360 is $400. Not only that its been out for over a year and it has not had a price drop. There are gamers out there, they are the majority, that won't spend over $200 for a system. The 360 and PS3 are outside of the impulse buying range of most consumers. It doesn't matter how many games either system receives for this segment of the population. They won't cross that $200 barrier. Before anyone asks about the Wii, I think the inclusion of Wii Sports helps sell the Wii to this part of the market. I think the consumer sees that Wii games cost $50 and that they are getting a "$50 value" out of the Wii Sports pack in.
Good Point Darc cause I know personal ten people who bought a Wii just cause it was cheap, no other reason besides that, I was telling them about it a then BAM (remember the old Batman) they had one just cause they bumped into it and it's wasn't that expensive. Think about people would you be more upset about wasting 250, 400 or 600 dollars?(Nobody likes to waste money)



 

  

 

TheSource said: Normally we get top 10 for each platofrm...
This was from a german website, I´m sorry. We usually get the top 10, too but this time they just had the top 3...



Alacrist said: In a race of three someone has to lose, someone has to win and someone will be the middle man but I don't think anyone will fail.
Really, didn't Xbox and Gamecube tie last time essentially?



I echo the sentiment that PS3 sales is in trouble. It's basically getting killed by a one-two punch by MS and NTDO. The 360 has really caught on with the hardcore gamer. This is shown by its awesome attach rate of 5+. The PS2, at the same point, had an attach rate of just 2 (which has since grown to nearly 10). Whereas NTDO farms for recruiting of the casual gamers and platform loyalists. PS3 is bought by nearly no one except for platform loyalists (and they are probably still buying PS2s). One might say that the Wii and PS3 are hurt by game drought. But even in Feb 2006, 360 had an attach rate of nearly 4. Whereas Wii has an attach rate of just under 3 (after adjusting for Wii Sports) and PS3 has 2.5. This is further supported by the fact that the 360 software sales is starting to rival PS2. In fact, combined PS2/PS3 sales is just 70k over combined XB/360 sales. This is compounded by the fact that 360 will be getting AAA titles every month while PS3 / Wii has to suffer the drought. Also, the PS3 exclusives are adding 360 ports so it makes the PS3 investment less and less worthwhile. If HD-DVD integrated Zephyr were to hit the market soon (May), it will be the first nail in the PS3 coffin. PS3's advantage of being an all in one unit will be wiped out. Tho, realistically, I'm expecting the integration to happen around Sept/Oct in order to drive X-mas sales. Long term, it looks like that PS3 will be the gamecube of this gen. To the gamers, buying a 360+PS2 is a better choice than buying a PS3.