Here are some statistics:
Good logic you have there... DVD's & HD/BR-DVD's movies are all compressed. Hell even vhs uses a form of compression in the form of frames per second limitations. Remember SP, EP and all those cool settings? If you can tell the difference between a compressed HD-DVD and uncompressed movie or even a uncompressed audio file vs a 192k-256k mp3 I would be very impressed and you would be 1 in... a billion. Leaving data uncompressed is archaic and we moved away from it for a reason. Sony always makes me laugh with their retarded "uncompressed data makes for higher framerates" excuse. Talk about having no idea about what their own technology can do (limitation hasnt been the cpu in decades. The limitation is the how fast the data gets to the cpu via the br-drive in this case thus uncompressed data takes a lot longer to feed than compressed data).
What I hate about downloadable stuff is the fact that I like having hard copies like others have mentioned especially if I have to pay for the content. I think the next evolution will be downloadable content and a media type that is much smaller than disks but with similar quality. My vote goes to memory cards once they are cheap enough. HD & BR are going no where.
Hmmm. Where to begin. /dismisses the vhs talk Lets start with the mp3s. The standard for downloadable mp3s is 128kbs. And pretty much everyone can tell the difference between one of those and the original source, not one in a billion. There have been plenty of listening tests. Of course, it really depends on the encoder, your player, your set up and your critical listening skills. Not everyone cares. I do. Now the compression used for dvd, br and hd-dvd video. The compression is mpeg2. Lossy, yes. Huge files sizes, yes. Indistinguishable from the original source? Again, depends upon your setup. But unless you have a professional studio in your home with a supersized projector, yes. When I said I hate compression, it's about taking something that has very little loss (because of the massive size) and reducing it in the interest of making it downloadable. If someone can make a codec that squeezes 15 GB of video into an easily downloadable size with no loss, then I won't have an issue. I don't want to sacrifice quality for speedy downloads, especially if it's going to cost just as much. The point is that with the internet where it is, there will be no big hd video download revolution. Not enough bandwidth. There will be someday, but it's still a while away. When that day comes, the tv/movie industry will be in for a serious shakeup, similar to the one we've seen with the music industry.
According to the site Stranne linked the average US citizen is at 4.8 mb/s right now.
This means a 4GB movie would take aproximately (1hr 53min 47sec) with a decent server to DL from.
4 GB (convert to mb) = 4 * 1024 * 8 = 32,768
32,768 (divide by speed for time in seconds) = 32,786 / 4.8 = 6,827 (rounded up)
6,827 (converted into hrs-min-sec) = 1hr 53min 47sec
Compared to NetFlix or even blockbuster this isn't to bad. Especially when you consider the convenience of not having to leave your house.
Music industry didn't think the internet and downloadable services would be successful and largely ignored it until it realised that millions & billions of illegal downloads of their artists were taken place so they were forced into action.
I download a lot of my music but I still buy CD albums, better quality and is a physical representation of my music tastes/collection
Same thing will happen with films/video. Internet service speeds and cost will improve. Amazon and Apple are likely to expand their downloadable content to full length HD movies at some point and all film studious will be interested in the distribution possibilities.
DVD will be around for many years to come.
I still buy DVDs. I do not intend in joining the HD war. In the future there are likely to be dual format players readily available and at a decent price. But by then downloadable HD content will also be readily available with a service to deliver it.
Take the Steam client for example you can pre order a game before it is released. Steam starts downloading it immediately but it will not be 100% complete until the day of its official release. Downloadable movies would work in a similar way.
|Lets start with the mp3s. The standard for downloadable mp3s is 128kbs.|
Where have you been the last five years or so? It's 192k. And with a good 192k rip at least I can't hear the difference from a CD track.
(btw, I just like to add that the editor is a real PITA)
My point is its not illegal
it can lead to legal issues easily as it will expand movie piracy even more then it has.
@stranna - what file type are you extracting your files as? I rip mine as lossless audio and they are 4mbs a piece.
We were talking .mp3 and there 192k is the "standard". Some other formats give smaller files at the same quality.
rentals, yes, purchases, not a flipping chance. Just ask VC owners if they "own" those games they have bought...you dont own any VC games, something not a lot of people know. On itunes, if you accidentally delete a file you have downloaded, IE The Office season 3, you cannot recover it.....
Its just not going to happen, it will not replace normal purchasing, however, in the future we MAY see a completely digital rental service......this would seem so much simpler...a "netflix set top box" that connects via ethernet or wifi with access to a huge server a la itunes, stores movies for 7 days and automatically deletes them.......this seems plausible, but to assume normal film distribution will be replace dby downloads is incredibly laughable all things considered...its not just even REMOTELY realistic....not even CLOSE.
People said that by 2000 T1 would be the standard internet connection. That worked out well...we were still 50% dial-up last year. The difference between downloading a song and a video is almost unrecognizable. A 256 kb/sec (acceptable bit rate for even picky people) album is around 100+megs while a 1080p movie, as shown by Pirates earlier, can range up to 9 gigs.
Let's just say that the average person wants to spend $20 a month. Ten years ago, that would get you dial-up. Right now, that would get you around 1 mb/sec internet give or take a few and depending on your area.
I say it will be another ten years before any kind of downloading service could penetrate the mass market simply because the average person is extremely impatient, especially with technology, and will not put up with waiting even a few hours for something they could waltz over to the store, buy, and watch in 30 mins or so.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson