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How long Until the Wii reach 50% Market share?

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Data for 2/6/09

Raw Data:

  Total Sales
Item Current 1 Week ago 4 Week ago 12 week ago
Wii 46,427,252 46,018,089 44,704,078 36,351,721
360 28,322,899 28,132,801 27,523,867 22,866,121
PS3 20,289,383 20,151,328 19,702,833 16,871,475

  Per Week Avg
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 409,163 430,794 839,628
360 190,098 199,758 454,732
PS3 138,055 146,638 284,826

Conculsions:

  Number of weeks to 50% based on:
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 27.0 25.9 21.8

Dates used:

Current 1 Week 4 Week 12 week
2/6/2009 1/30/2009 1/9/2009 11/14/2008

As you can see the weeks to get to 50% have gotten much closer for each of the averages.  I believe that the best bet is the 4 week average becase this will average out the supply jumps and slumps for the Wii.



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Well, after the adjustments made in January, it took about 6 weeks to go up .1. If the trend continues at the current rate with no major shifts this year, it will need 1.1 points, or 6 weeks * 11, 66 weeks, or June 2010. Now you have to factor in the possibility of another monster Christmas season, which might bring it to early 2010.

Of course, this is based on the theory that no console will have any major system pusher this year



for my Wii 50% market share to come true, it needs an average of 88-104k/week more than the PS3 and 360 combined.

So it needs to speed back up by a very tiny amount.




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Time to 50% went up this week. Interesting.



If the Wii can consistently outsell its competitors combined by 100k each week, I'll be looking at June.



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Hmm, I honestly can't even make a guess, the market is a tad unpredictable, especially Japan. What I do know is; it'll take considerably longer than the majority assumed (including me seeing the steam it gained last year), a large part of the community was dead sure it'd pass 50% by end of 08.
If I had to guess I'd say somewhere around fall, spring and summer sales aren't exactly huge, so margins compared to lt sales will be smaller even if the percentage by which it keeps outselling the PS360 remains constant.
Around August/September is my guess.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Data for 2/13/09

Raw Data:

  Total Sales
Item Current 1 Week ago 4 Week ago 12 week ago
Wii 46,794,327 46,423,464 45,046,735 37,148,654
360 28,499,449 28,316,929 27,717,524 23,279,252
PS3 20,459,978 20,324,620 19,876,720 17,114,431

  Per Week Avg
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 370,863 436,898 803,806
360 182,520 195,481 435,016
PS3 135,358 145,815 278,796

Conculsions:

  Number of weeks to 50% based on:
Item 1 Week Avg 4 Week Avg 12 Week Avg
Wii 40.9 22.6 24.1

Dates used:

Current 1 Week 4 Week 12 week
2/13/2009 2/6/2009 1/16/2009 11/21/2008

I believe that the best bet is the 4 week average becase this will average out the supply jumps and slumps for the Wii.



the will probabaly get more than 50% once more software can push it there.



Last year I expected it to happen by February 2009, but then 360's increase in sales happened, and December Wii sales were weirdly low in USA (even lower than November per week according to NPD).



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October maybe but never again after Christmas



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