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Forums - Sony Discussion - CES 2009: Blu-Ray US adoption rate vs CD/DVD/VHS/TV/Color TV/HDTV

gavind5uk on 09 January 2009

You might be able to contact the guy running the site for the sources, im not sure to be honest but i think the numbers themselves are accurate given that this is the info about the guy who collated them :

'Jim Taylor is Chief of DVD Technology and General Manager of the Advanced Technology Group at Sonic Solutions, the leading developer of DVD and CD creation software. He is the author of DVD Demystified, the best-selling book about DVD technology, published by McGraw-Hill. Called a "minor tech legend" by E! Online, Jim created the Internet DVD FAQ, writes articles and columns about DVD, serves as Chairman of the DVD Association, and sits on advisory boards of leading-edge companies in the DVD industry. Jim received the 2000 DVD Pro Discus Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Industry, was named one of the 21 most influential DVD executives by DVD Report, was an inaugural inductee into the 2002 Digital Media Hall of Fame, and was named one of the Pioneers of DVD by One to One magazine. He has worked with interactive media for over 25 years, developing educational software, laserdiscs, CD-ROMs, Web sites, and DVDs, along with teaching workshops, seminars, and university courses. Before joining Sonic in 2001, Jim was DVD Evangelist at Microsoft, and was formerly VP of Information Technology at Videodiscovery, an educational multimedia publishing company.'

I get the impression he probably knows the numbers from memory! lol

 

EDIT: on the main page it says a BD version of the faq is out soon so that will be good for direct comparison



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SnesTea on 09 January 2009
Zlejedi said:
Electro General said:
Squilliam said:
Overall volumes != a single title.

Yep, it looks like its comparing revenue again. And since most BR titles cost around twice as much, if not more than DVD releases, I think its safe to say that these numbers aren't nearly as impressive.

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Widescreen-Single-Disc/dp/B001GZ6QC4/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508805&sr=8-2

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Two-Disc-Special-Digital/dp/B001GZ6QDS/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508805&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Digital-Copy-Blu-ray/dp/B001GZ6QEC/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=toys-and-games&qid=1231508805&sr=8-3


http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Digital-Copy-Blu-ray/dp/B001GZ6QEC/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=toys-and-games&qid=1231508805&sr=8-3

http://www.amazon.com/Mamma-Movie-Blu-ray-Meryl-Streep/dp/B001GKJ2FW/ref=pd_bbs_sr_5?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508953&sr=8-5


Where are those more than twice as much BR titles ?

 

 

Well considering 4 of those links are the same fucking movie and the last one is shitty as well, your argument still doesn't hold up.



Kasz216 on 09 January 2009
alpha_dk said:

We never claimed they were anything other than shipped numbers, I don't see how anything is 'fishy' about that. Thank you for the source for consumer sells, gavind... do you know what their source is? I've been looking for straight-up to-consumer data for a while (not very hard, mind you) and I'd like to know where these to-consumers numbers came from. Most (all) of the data I can find is to-retailers

Edit: Also, holy crap!  200k consumer player sell-through (first year), 2M disc sell-through?!?! That's still an attach rate of 10!

Edit 2: Oh, wait. I see what they did.  They had consumer sell-through for year one, but just used shipments for years 2-X.  Darn.

What do you mean?

Either way... it still puts DVD ahead of Blu-ray....

even when you don't account for the fact that Blu-ray is swimming in a larger pool since DVD greatly expanded the market.

Blu-ray is still likely to suceed eventually, but people pretending it's an amazing miracle that's outpacing DVD are being downright silly.

 

 



Kasz216 on 09 January 2009
Snesboy said:
Zlejedi said:
Electro General said:
Squilliam said:
Overall volumes != a single title.

Yep, it looks like its comparing revenue again. And since most BR titles cost around twice as much, if not more than DVD releases, I think its safe to say that these numbers aren't nearly as impressive.

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Widescreen-Single-Disc/dp/B001GZ6QC4/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508805&sr=8-2

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Two-Disc-Special-Digital/dp/B001GZ6QDS/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508805&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Digital-Copy-Blu-ray/dp/B001GZ6QEC/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=toys-and-games&qid=1231508805&sr=8-3


http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Knight-Digital-Copy-Blu-ray/dp/B001GZ6QEC/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=toys-and-games&qid=1231508805&sr=8-3

http://www.amazon.com/Mamma-Movie-Blu-ray-Meryl-Streep/dp/B001GKJ2FW/ref=pd_bbs_sr_5?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1231508953&sr=8-5


Where are those more than twice as much BR titles ?

 

 

Well considering 4 of those links are the same fucking movie and the last one is shitty as well, your argument still doesn't hold up.

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 



BrainBoxLtd on 09 January 2009
Kasz216 said:

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 

 

 $30-$50 for non-upscaling seems to be the average now.

Let me see if I understand this chart right. They're comparing the "revenue" of Blu-Ray Players (And the PS3) to other devices? Is that correct?

If so shouldn't the DVD cloumn include revenue from all DVD enabled devices then? After all the PS3 is a gaming system as well, so if you're going to count it towards Blu-Ray, you count all devices with DVD playback. That'd include the 360, the PS2, the PS3 (lol), Blu-Ray players (they play DVD's), almost every modern home computer, certain cars that include DVD players with LCD screens.



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Kasz216 on 09 January 2009
BrainBoxLtd said:
Kasz216 said:

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 

 

 $30-$50 for non-upscaling seems to be the average now.

Let me see if I understand this chart right. They're comparing the "revenue" of Blu-Ray Players (And the PS3) to other devices? Is that correct?

If so shouldn't the DVD cloumn include revenue from all DVD enabled devices then? After all the PS3 is a gaming system as well, so if you're going to count it towards Blu-Ray, you count all devices with DVD playback. That'd include the 360, the PS2, the PS3 (lol), Blu-Ray players (they play DVD's), almost every modern home computer, certain cars that include DVD players with LCD screens.

Well it's Player revenue at that time.  So i screwed up on that one admittidly.  DVD players were kinda pricey.

I think... around 450 when DVD hit mainsteam... so 450 vs 600 isn't that bad.

 



BrainBoxLtd on 09 January 2009
Kasz216 said:

Well it's Player revenue at that time.  So i screwed up on that one admittidly.  DVD players were... kinda pricey.

Nowhere near Blu-ray pricey since they don't have anything indicating they adjusted for inflation.

 

 

 Ahh, well that seems even less useful then. They're comparing the revenue from the first 6 months of DVD to the first 6 months Blu-Ray? What are we suppose to draw from that? I remember some of the very first Blu-Ray players actually cost close to $1000 USD at launch. I remember that's one of the things HD-DVD fans touted was there players were around $500 on average.

How much were DVD players in 1997. Like $200-$400, or was it more?



alpha_dk on 09 January 2009
Kasz216 said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Kasz216 said:

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 

 

 $30-$50 for non-upscaling seems to be the average now.

Let me see if I understand this chart right. They're comparing the "revenue" of Blu-Ray Players (And the PS3) to other devices? Is that correct?

If so shouldn't the DVD cloumn include revenue from all DVD enabled devices then? After all the PS3 is a gaming system as well, so if you're going to count it towards Blu-Ray, you count all devices with DVD playback. That'd include the 360, the PS2, the PS3 (lol), Blu-Ray players (they play DVD's), almost every modern home computer, certain cars that include DVD players with LCD screens.

Well it's Player revenue at that time.  So i screwed up on that one admittidly.  DVD players were kinda pricey.

I think... around 450 when DVD hit mainsteam... so 450 vs 600 isn't that bad.

 

In no way, shape, or form is it player revenue.  It is quite explicitly units shipped.

@MikeB: More evidence against 3M players shipped this year: they explicitly state 10.7 LTD US shipments, including PS3.  There's no way they shipped 3.1M standalones this year.



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Tyrannical on 10 January 2009

Xbox fans are free to support blu-ray now.
Standalone blu-ray players are substantialy cheaper then a PS3 now. In fact, cheaper blu-ray players may be responsible for the PS3's 2008 holiday drop compared to 2007.



Yet, today, America's leaders are reenacting every folly that brought these great powers [Russia, Germany, and Japan] to ruin -- from arrogance and hubris, to assertions of global hegemony, to imperial overstretch, to trumpeting new 'crusades,' to handing out war guarantees to regions and countries where Americans have never fought before. We are piling up the kind of commitments that produced the greatest disasters of the twentieth century.
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Kasz216 on 10 January 2009
alpha_dk said:
Kasz216 said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Kasz216 said:

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 

 

 $30-$50 for non-upscaling seems to be the average now.

Let me see if I understand this chart right. They're comparing the "revenue" of Blu-Ray Players (And the PS3) to other devices? Is that correct?

If so shouldn't the DVD cloumn include revenue from all DVD enabled devices then? After all the PS3 is a gaming system as well, so if you're going to count it towards Blu-Ray, you count all devices with DVD playback. That'd include the 360, the PS2, the PS3 (lol), Blu-Ray players (they play DVD's), almost every modern home computer, certain cars that include DVD players with LCD screens.

Well it's Player revenue at that time.  So i screwed up on that one admittidly.  DVD players were kinda pricey.

I think... around 450 when DVD hit mainsteam... so 450 vs 600 isn't that bad.

 

In no way, shape, or form is it player revenue.  It is quite explicitly units shipped.

@MikeB: More evidence against 3M players shipped this year: they explicitly state 10.7 LTD US shipments, including PS3.  There's no way they shipped 3.1M standalones this year.

No it's not look at the bottom of that graph

"BD Player/PS3 value counts households- multiple device households counted once."