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Wii is at 5.0m already... >_<

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii is at 5.0m already... >_<

Thought they shipped 2,2m too europe tell me if im wrong.



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Kwaad said: 1.5 million is high. I'd be happy if they sell over 1. But then agian, if they sell over 1. They have damn near caught up with the Wii in Europe. :P
As a guestimate, I would say the PS3 will sell 500,000 to 750,000 in March followed by (at most) about 500,000 in April and then reducing to lower sales rate; the Wii will probably end up having sold a similar number of consoles in February, March and April so it is unlikely the PS3 will have "almost" caught up ...



I made a graph of data based on the assumption that Nov-Dec data is inflated, and PS3 is not yet out in Europe (I made PS3 sales 80% of the rate of averaged sales of Japan and Americas for non March and holiday months). If the reduced sales rates are held constant from March-Sept for Wii and 360 and April to October for PS3 (adjusted from March to account for the huge Euro release), the Wii ties the 360 around September. I think any transition before that time is very unrealistic. I was fairly generous too - I had Wii at 5 million for the end of February worldwide. Due to price and end of year sales, I had 360 outselling PS3 on a monthly average for most of the year worldwide. However, at the end of the year, I have PS3 outselling 360, because it will be in demand in three markets, not two. With that said, I expect 360 sales for the year at around 6-7 million, Wii sales at 12-16 million, and PS3 sales at 7-8 million (which is amazing given the price). If 360 is beyond the highend, and Wii is lower then than the low end, say 8 million to 11 million, Wii would not catch up until Spring 2008. If my formula was somehow perfect here is what it would mean in terms of milestones 360 hits 10 million sold in March/April Wii hits 10 million sold in July/August PS3 hits 10 million sold in Feb/March 2008' (slightly faster than 360 in terms of timing) Wii hits 15 million 1-3 months before 360, likely in late October- early December 360 hits 15 million before the end of 2007 I think (late Dec probably), but it could be as late as Feb 08' PS3 hits 8 million about 11 months after 360 did (mid November 2007) I don't know how to copy the graph but the data for 2007 came out like this: March 31, 2007: 360 - 9.757 million Wii - 6.145 million PS3 - 3.235 million June 30, 2007: 360 - 11.190 million Wii - 9.580 million PS3 - 4.608 million September 30, 2007 Wii - 13.015 million 360 - 12.623 million PS3 - 5.982 million December 31, 2007 Wii - 19.000 million (assumes sales like Nov-Dec 2006, for all three markets, for full time frame, I can see 15-20 million by the end of the year if manufacturing increases as it should.) 360 - 14.861 (assumes modest sales all around - I can see this in the 14-16 million range) PS3 - 8.730 million (good sales in one market - probably Europe- decent to bad elsewhere, should be in the 8-10 million range by year end) I have 5 major caveats though about my own data... 1) Assumes most Halo fans already own a 360 (if not, add 1 million) 2) Assume PS3 has no Final Fantasy games in Japan this year (add 500k if false) 3) Assumes Wii non games continue to do very well across the world (-2 million if false) 4) Assumes Dragon Quest, Mario, Smash Brothers appeal to the Japenese (-1 mill if false) 5) Assumes no price cut for 360 in N.A., or PS3 - anywhere (+1-2 million if false)



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kirby007 said: Thought they shipped 2,2m too europe tell me if im wrong.
The official numbers provided by Sony is one million over the launch window, which is usually about a 3 month period. However, with demand being mostly met by supply in NA and Japan, I imagine they'll be able to increase those numbers if there is the demand for it. unless you're refering to the Wii, in which case I'm an idiot.



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The Source... Thats okay stuff, BUT... -You're assuming Nintendo surpasses its own goals of 6m through March, and 1 million/month produced in the time period directly after that. I'd only put them at about 9m through June. -"Most" Halo fans almost certainly DON'T own a 360, considering there are nearly as many Halo fans as there are 360 owners... -I think you're more safe to assume there WILL be a price cut for 360 this year. All signs point that way... -You shouldn't assume that Sony will do better in Europe than they have elsewhere... There's lots of talk of "Europe is Sony country," but then again, so were Japan and NA, where Sony is now in second and third respectively, and falling further behind every week/month.



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Actually I'd say The Source is downplaing the PS3. He's saying. 1.2 million PS3's sold in the PS3's greatest software month... and europe launch? Europe launch. Before the end of march. At LEAST 500,000. (probibally closer to 750,000) America. With the games comming. I'd say at least 400 Japan. With Gundam comming. I'd say at least 300 That is well over 1.2... with 'at least' numbers.



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Kwaad said: Actually I'd say The Source is downplaing the PS3. He's saying. 1.2 million PS3's sold in the PS3's greatest software month... and europe launch? Europe launch. Before the end of march. At LEAST 500,000. (probibally closer to 750,000) America. With the games comming. I'd say at least 400 Japan. With Gundam comming. I'd say at least 300 That is well over 1.2... with 'at least' numbers.
I would say expecting higher numbers than the PS2 had in March 2006 is setting yourself up for disapointement ... PS3 for March will be (my guestimate) 250,000 in North America and 140,000 in Japan



I bet PS3 barely breaks 2.8m by the end of March.



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No Kwaad, there is no significant system seller out for the PS3 that will sell more than 300K PS3s, especially with no price cuts in March in NA and JP. Virtua Fighter is not a system seller, fighting games are not that big here, certainly not worth $500.



Sintinel said: I bet PS3 barely breaks 2.8m by the end of March.
300,000 America. 150,000 Japan 350,000 Europe. (europeans hate sony. It's sonys worst market) Yup 2.8million. :P



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