I think this has more to do with the system being brand new last year this time and the people who really wanted it were picking it up in heavy amounts. Right now most of the people who would pick it up at the current prices have and so a price drop is needed to ask more people to buy or MS could rely on their upcoming games (Halo and GTA most of all) to convince people to pick up the machine without the need for a lower price.
I still think there won't be a 360 price drop till pre holidays (November) because they will sell consoles by way of Halo and GTA.
I generally agree with you ...
There are only so many people who have the money to buy an XBox 360 system, who are interested in videogames in general, and are interested in the XBox 360 in particular. Currently Microsoft are running low on people who meet these criteria and the only ways for it to continue selling is to:
- Increase the number of people who can afford the XBox 360 (either by giving them more money or reducing the price of the system)
- Get non-gamers interested in buying the XBox 360
- Or increase the number of gamers who are interested in buying the XBox 360 (typically through the release of major exclusive titles)
Now I do believe that Halo 3 and GTA 4 will provide major sales boosts but I think delaying the price drop could hurt the sales of these games and limit the userbase increase from the release of these games.