KBG29 said:
It is imposible to say. With the momentum that both systems have right now both will easly make 50M.
07
PS3 360
7.93M 8.10M
07 Oct. 20 Jan 5 08
PS3 360
4.00M 3.77M
08 Thru Oct. 13
PS3 360
7.04M 5.61M
08 if holiday sales equale last year
PS3 360
11.04M 9.38M
As you can see both systems are well on pace to sell better year over year. PS3 has made a much bigger leap should the numbers remain similar to last year, while the 360 should sell a respectable 1M more.
Next year will be a very intersting year for this generation. We will enter the year with the 360 having a model + and - $50 dollars of the Wii in the US, and (2) models below the Wii in EU and Japan. Sony will be at 15 months without a price drop, and still being as much as $200 dollars more than the compotition. Nintendo will be at 27 months without a cut and more than likly, still selling out supply.
Between 360 and PS3 thing could happen many differant ways. Blu-ray could become a big enough thing this holiday to really start being a sales point for the PS3, or it could fail and be just a small side note. 360 could pick up a ton of momentum this holiday, and Sony will have to really do something early next year. PS3 could pick up the momentum this holiday, and that would leave the 360 against a wall next year. All of the above is fact, and we must go into the next year knowing this. Now that I have given sold data I will move on to my prediction.
For the rest of this year I expect to see the PS3 take over and create a wider and wider gap (between 360 and itself). Little Big Planet and Home are both causal games/experinaces that are only going to begin to help the PS3 this holiday. Blu-ray sales are going to explode no trends are showing that it will, and it will make the PS3 a very disired gift. Every store will be pushing Blu-ray as the must have item this year is there any proof of a marketing blitz like this happening? , and every CE company will be putting out amazing deals. This can only be a good thing for the PS3.
Now the PS3 doing well does not mean the 360 will fail. With a price option below the Wii I feel it will get a lot of impulse buyes from Grandparents this holiday cheaper price does not always equal more sales. In this case, grandpasrents still favor the Wii, with the idea that it is a fun console. The new Xbox experiance and Banjo will help show the softer side of the console, and the nextflix deal will help move a few consolesThe casual people who you say are going to buy more consoles most likely don't use their 360s for TV, or downloading movies but you can argue against me there, that is my opinion. I expect both consoles to exceed last years holiday numbers by at least 15%.
Going into next year I expect the PS3 will fall down very close to 360 as the price differance really starts to become a factor. This will force Sony to drop the price of the console and I expect it to happen in late March with the Killzone 2 launch Sony would drop the price during a better time. Most of the people who want Killzone 2 already have a PS3. After this PS3 will begin to outsell 360 by bigger gaps than we saw this year, but I expect that both will be selling more per week year over year. Next year we will see the first time the HD consoles start to effect the Wii Sales of HD consoles haven't shown to ever cut into the Wii with any of their big releases. If anything, the 360 will see decline and PS3 will peak and this is going to cause Nintendo to do one of three things.
1) Introduce new colors.
2) Drop the price in August
3) Do both 1 and 2
By E3 of next year we will most likely see a 40/35/25 market for the year being Wii/PS3/360 respectivly Do you know how many millions of units the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by next July in order for that to happen?. This will cuase the above actions to be taken by Nintedno, and it will mean both Sony and Microsoft must react. The best move Microsoft could make at this point would be to offer built in Blu-ray that would require some interior hardware addition. I doubt Blu-ray would be added anyways, common belief. But once again, you can argue with me on that for all future Eilites, and an add-on drive for all older 360's. They should also add a small harddrive to the arcade That would raise the price of the Arcade, which should have come with a small harddrive in the first place, and up the size of the drives in both the other models. Sony will need to expand the base harddrive size, and bring back PS2 by adding software emulation. They have got to add a PS2 section to the PSStore by next year. Next year has to be the last for PS2 The PS2 games are still available at retail.
Both Microsoft and Sony should be showing slim models of their systems come next E3 A PS3 redesign in less than 3 years? Doesn't mix right with the 10-year plan. I do not expect a price cut with these new modles as both companies will be doing good saleswise, and they will be more interested in getting back losses What's the point of a slimmer model if it is more expensive than the design preceding it. By themsleves the new slimmer models will do enough to do wonders for both systems. Both should become more popular in Japan The Japanese don't want an Xbox360, no matter what it looks like. They want some games to give reason for a purchase , and to a smaller degree the US, and Europe. It will also be a good time for existing owners, and fanboys to purchase another console.
By the end of next year both the PS3 and 360 should be sitting right on the edge of if not over 40M The PS3 will sell over 25 million in one year? They would have to produce PS3s slightly below Wii levels. Sony was having trouble making PS3s several months ago, claiming shortages. Who's going to buy all of these? That will leave 10M or less to go tell they hit 50M, and I completly expect that to happen. In 2010 both systems will see another round of price cuts, and this will put both the basic PS3, and the best value 360 at the $199 price point. The PS3 can't reduce in price 60% in 2 years, and with the Arcade already $199, the Elite at $199 would force the Arcade's price to go down as well. If that's the case, how much will it cost, $49? Wii should be down to $149 at this point The Wii appears like it will peak in 2009 at it's current $250, by 2010 the price due to a price cut will put it at $199. That is assuming the Wii doesn't continue trending like the DS in which it is doing now, and being easly outsold by PS3 and mabye even slightly under the 360 I don't ever recall leading systems having such historic drops. Features like IPTV, VOD, DVR, and MOD will allow people to use the PS3/360 instead of a cable box. This along with a massive demand for both Blu-ray There is no proof yet of Blu-Ray demand or any BR necessity, and other HD uses will put a strain on the Wii Consumers don't choose Wii or HD. They either want an HD console from, or they want a Wii from the start. If anything, the HD consoles are competing harder against each other, which proabaly will make an advantage difficult to gain for both the PS3 and the 360 With prices of both HDTV's and HD consoles down to a mass market point, both systems will finally hit the point were they are actually meaningful to the majority of people.
The PS3 have caught the 360 by the end of 2009, and will be selling faster than any other console come 2010. This will mean that it finds 50M faster than the 360, but both should do it in the same year. So please remeber I said these are (MY) predictions, and as so I have stated them as fact. I have no problem when others do the same, because if you can't stand on what you believe then you are a sorry, sorry person. Just look at religious people. They state god as fact, and it is all opinion and no proof. So go ahead and attck my ideas, but not how I presented them. |
Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. " thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."
