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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.24%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.42%
 
Second half of 2023 15 9.09%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.85%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.48%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.64%
 
Second half of 2025 3 1.82%
 
Later than above 1 0.61%
 
Never 107 64.85%
 
Total:165
DonFerrari said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Underscored: Sure, Sony could halve the price of the PS4. But guess what: They do so already during BF, and the sales are still dropping during that period.

Also, doing that now would be suicide for them. They could do so, but only absolute enthusiasts would then go and buy a PS5, which will be several times more expensive - the exact thing that almost killed the PS3 at launch btw. And that wasn't the only reason why the PS2 kept selling: 3rd world countries got introduced with the PS2 only after the PS3 was released in the west, but the PS4 launched in these countries almost the same time as in the west. Also, many, many bought a PS2 only for Singstar or Buzz - you know, the kind of casuals that later went to the Wii, Kinect and finally smartphones.

bolded: Wrong console, that was the PS3. As a BD-Player the PS4 is way overpriced. I got my BD-3D player in 2013 for about 130€, now they cost half that. A BD-4K player also only costs about 120€, still cheaper than a PS4 even at your purported price tag. No one would buy a PS4 these days just to have a BD-Player.

Additionally, I want to stress that most of the PS2 sales came from the US. But there, Microsoft has now put up much stronger competition than the PS2 had, even with an XBO with middling sales worldwide, as more than half of them come from the US. Playstation has lost part of the US market to the Xbox which was in Sony's hands during the PS2 era.

Long story short, the PS4 doesn't have anything that could give it something near the legs that the PS2 had. PS2 had tons of boosters after the PS3 got revealed, but most of them are not available for the PS4 anymore, so the only reason why the PS4 would sell well into the future would be that Sony royally botches the PS5 launch and makes it too expensive for most people (aka over $599).

Finally, one thing that you can check here is that Playstation plus Xbox each gen results into around 175M. That's true both for PS2/Xbox and PS360, and it looks increasingly like PS4/XBO won't be far off, either.

Just wanted to touch one point.

PS2 also wasn't really the "cheap DVD-player", that myth is easily desbunked looking PS2 had attach ratio about 10 which isn't something very different from the norm at the time.

You guys are missing the point, I didn't say people buy it ONLY FOR DVD or Bluray, its just a better investment something that can play games and also other media. In fact the Xbox One is in my opinion the best media device out there, it plays Xbox one games, 360 games, some original xbox games, it also plays 4K blurays and any media on any type of hard drives through KODI or VLC which destroys the ps4 as a media device.

With that said I still prefer to use my beelink GT-Pro for movies and music as its much quicker, has an air remote and better sound. Surely I didn't need to spend 200dollars on another device that does the same things the xbox already does, but for me 200 dollars is nothing these days, I spend more than that on a dentist appointment. If I had the money for only 1 single device it would be the xbox One, no doubt about it, I've seen the xbox slim on sales for 160dollars, way better than a standalone 4K bluray that wont have media through USB and apps and such.

But for some people who cant afford a lot of stuff, but they want to game,its a better investment to buy a console than a Bluray player only.

The switch also doesn't play any movies or music or anything at all media wise, so, most people who buy it already have another console or device that can do those things.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Also, it worth nothing that nobody gives a fuck about Blu-ray players in the age of Netflix, Hulu, Disney +, Prime, etc...

If you have a nice projector and a 120inch screen, you only have 2 options, blurays or movies in your USB in very high quality, Neflix and any other streaming services don't give you the image and audio quality for people who love cinema. Netflix is for the average joe who enjoys the movie but its not too into quality. The same way you sell more ps4 than ps4 pro, the average joe thinks is enough, but some of us want the best image/sound quality we can get. The same reason most people buy cheap TV boxes, and I spent 200dollars on one just because it has dual 32bit DAC, the same reason I would never listen to music on my phone, because audio would never be as good as my Walkman.

The same reason I use a 120inch screen and most people have 65inch TVs with reflections and contrast issues and such. I am a lot into quality, I'm a tech geek.

The market of people who want quality has always been small as far as I can remember, but we are out there. I will never use a streaming service for my media, I prefer to own my own media and play it without needing internet or subscriptions and so on.

Last edited by victor83fernandes - 2 days ago

DonFerrari said:
TruckOSaurus said:
Also, it worth nothing that nobody gives a fuck about Blu-ray players in the age of Netflix, Hulu, Disney +, Prime, etc...

Don't say that. I liked that X1S and X1X had 4K BDplayer, but since I haven't found a single 4KBD to sale in Brazil that interest didn't matter =[

You still made the better choice, because your xbox reads any media from USB drives, and VLC and KODI read absolutely anything, the ps4 doesn't read almost anything I have, no FLAC, no ALAC, no HEVC, and subtitles on ps4 are dodgy too. I still do not understand how VLC is on xbox but not on ps4.

So if you enjoy gaming + movies and music, then the xbox was the wise choice. You know what other thing the ps4 doesn't do, it doesn't have backwards compatibility, so enjoy playing your 360 games in higher framerates and resolutions ;)



victor83fernandes said:
DonFerrari said:

Just wanted to touch one point.

PS2 also wasn't really the "cheap DVD-player", that myth is easily desbunked looking PS2 had attach ratio about 10 which isn't something very different from the norm at the time.

You guys are missing the point, I didn't say people buy it ONLY FOR DVD or Bluray, its just a better investment something that can play games and also other media. In fact the Xbox One is in my opinion the best media device out there, it plays Xbox one games, 360 games, some original xbox games, it also plays 4K blurays and any media on any type of hard drives through KODI or VLC which destroys the ps4 as a media device.

With that said I still prefer to use my beelink GT-Pro for movies and music as its much quicker, has an air remote and better sound. Surely I didn't need to spend 200dollars on another device that does the same things the xbox already does, but for me 200 dollars is nothing these days, I spend more than that on a dentist appointment. If I had the money for only 1 single device it would be the xbox One, no doubt about it, I've seen the xbox slim on sales for 160dollars, way better than a standalone 4K bluray that wont have media through USB and apps and such.

But for some people who cant afford a lot of stuff, but they want to game,its a better investment to buy a console than a Bluray player only.

The switch also doesn't play any movies or music or anything at all media wise, so, most people who buy it already have another console or device that can do those things.

We understood what you said, just pointed you are just wrong. Don't use yourself as a standard. Look at attach ratio for the consoles and you'll see it have been consistent so nope, neither PS2, nor PS3 nor PS4 were bought because they were cheap media readers. Some users that bought those used for those functions but not the other way around. "Ow well I need to buy a BD player that costs less than 100, well I should buy a 400 console because maybe I'll play a game one day" said no one.

victor83fernandes said:
DonFerrari said:

Don't say that. I liked that X1S and X1X had 4K BDplayer, but since I haven't found a single 4KBD to sale in Brazil that interest didn't matter =[

You still made the better choice, because your xbox reads any media from USB drives, and VLC and KODI read absolutely anything, the ps4 doesn't read almost anything I have, no FLAC, no ALAC, no HEVC, and subtitles on ps4 are dodgy too. I still do not understand how VLC is on xbox but not on ps4.

So if you enjoy gaming + movies and music, then the xbox was the wise choice. You know what other thing the ps4 doesn't do, it doesn't have backwards compatibility, so enjoy playing your 360 games in higher framerates and resolutions ;)

I don't use my PS4 for media reading, my tv with vlc already read all I need also have a PC.

Also besides already having X360 the games I like to play are usually exclusives to PS, and I rarely play older gen stuff unless it have been remade/remastered for current because I do really like IQ.



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victor83fernandes said:
DonFerrari said:

Just wanted to touch one point.

PS2 also wasn't really the "cheap DVD-player", that myth is easily desbunked looking PS2 had attach ratio about 10 which isn't something very different from the norm at the time.

You guys are missing the point, I didn't say people buy it ONLY FOR DVD or Bluray, its just a better investment something that can play games and also other media. In fact the Xbox One is in my opinion the best media device out there, it plays Xbox one games, 360 games, some original xbox games, it also plays 4K blurays and any media on any type of hard drives through KODI or VLC which destroys the ps4 as a media device.

With that said I still prefer to use my beelink GT-Pro for movies and music as its much quicker, has an air remote and better sound. Surely I didn't need to spend 200dollars on another device that does the same things the xbox already does, but for me 200 dollars is nothing these days, I spend more than that on a dentist appointment. If I had the money for only 1 single device it would be the xbox One, no doubt about it, I've seen the xbox slim on sales for 160dollars, way better than a standalone 4K bluray that wont have media through USB and apps and such.

But for some people who cant afford a lot of stuff, but they want to game,its a better investment to buy a console than a Bluray player only.

The switch also doesn't play any movies or music or anything at all media wise, so, most people who buy it already have another console or device that can do those things.

It says a lot, the way I see it, that the Xbox One offers so much multimedia support and Switch so little, yet Switch is smashing Xbone in sales. People buy gaming systems to play games; as long as Nintendo keeps releasing highly popular and desirable games on Switch, it will continue to sell well.



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curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

You guys are missing the point, I didn't say people buy it ONLY FOR DVD or Bluray, its just a better investment something that can play games and also other media. In fact the Xbox One is in my opinion the best media device out there, it plays Xbox one games, 360 games, some original xbox games, it also plays 4K blurays and any media on any type of hard drives through KODI or VLC which destroys the ps4 as a media device.

With that said I still prefer to use my beelink GT-Pro for movies and music as its much quicker, has an air remote and better sound. Surely I didn't need to spend 200dollars on another device that does the same things the xbox already does, but for me 200 dollars is nothing these days, I spend more than that on a dentist appointment. If I had the money for only 1 single device it would be the xbox One, no doubt about it, I've seen the xbox slim on sales for 160dollars, way better than a standalone 4K bluray that wont have media through USB and apps and such.

But for some people who cant afford a lot of stuff, but they want to game,its a better investment to buy a console than a Bluray player only.

The switch also doesn't play any movies or music or anything at all media wise, so, most people who buy it already have another console or device that can do those things.

It says a lot, the way I see it, that the Xbox One offers so much multimedia support and Switch so little, yet Switch is smashing Xbone in sales. People buy gaming systems to play games; as long as Nintendo keeps releasing highly popular and desirable games on Switch, it will continue to sell well.

I think PS2 is the only one you could argue that multimedia helped sell it.



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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

It says a lot, the way I see it, that the Xbox One offers so much multimedia support and Switch so little, yet Switch is smashing Xbone in sales. People buy gaming systems to play games; as long as Nintendo keeps releasing highly popular and desirable games on Switch, it will continue to sell well.

I think PS2 is the only one you could argue that multimedia helped sell it.

PSOne, too, maybe. But not very much, that's for sure.



Question: Will the Switch outsell the PS4, and if so when?

Answer: The PS2 was a DVD player!

Look, I get why it's been brought up, but I feel like we're off track now. The PS4 will not sell like the PS2, and the specifics of why aren't that important. It would need an insane surge of sales to occur after the release of its successor to manage that. Even if PS4 sells until 2027 and the PS5 has a Red Ring of Death level catastrophe, PS4 isn't getting within 20 million, probably not even 30 million of PS2. The Switch isn't either, even if it peaks next year instead of this year. If it does peak in 2021 instead of 2020, I could see it passing PS4, otherwise it probably won't, but it stands a great chance of outselling Wii either way, and it very much deserves it.

Whether the PS4's multimedia capabilities will help it over Switch's lack of them is kind of irrelevant at this point. We have hard sales data and patterns, we don't need to speculate about how features or lack thereof will impact sales. We've already seen how each console's features have helped it. The question at this point is what else does each system have left in its natural sales life to boost and sustain sales, what do the sales trends point to, and what events could yet change those trends. The only thing left in the PS4's life at this point is the still steady release of software, which will help, and the release of its successor, which will hurt a lot. The Switch has a lot of life ahead of it, but the sales trends aren't a slam dunk for it yet. Beyond Nintendo's continued support, I think Switch needs a little something to keep its momentum growing if it wants to beat PS4. PS4 is pretty much a known quantity at this point, but Switch still has potential to surprise us. Not "beat the DS" surprise, but certain it could manage a "beat the Gameboy and PS4" surprise.



Later than 2024 or never, it depends on how long both Ninty and 3rd parties will support it strongly. As a portable its specs are the top, and after PSV failure, Ninty will be able to decide how long NS will be the reference platform for the whole portable console market long enough to complete its planned lifecycle, but as a home console its RAM size is the bare minimum now, at least for most multiplats, one or two years after PS5 and XBTwo launch, most multiplats will arrive to require so much RAM that even the excellent streamlining Ninty consoles allow won't be enough to squeeze them into NS RAM. This will make NS lose a minority, but still a significant one, of its market, making it more long and difficult to fill the gap after, say, 2022. Still possible, but less easily than with 2020, 2021 and 2022 sales numbers. Anyhow, if NS will peak not this year, but next, the sales curve will extend longer and NS will have more chances even with its home console market part squeezing.



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The only way I can see this not being Switch's peak year is if their lineup for the rest of the year is as weak as it currently appears and they have no more big system selling games after Animal Crossing, and/or if shortages become a year-long issue.

Last edited by curl-6 - 20 hours ago