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NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

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How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 4 11.11%
 
500k-1 million 2 5.56%
 
1 million-1.5 million 7 19.44%
 
1.5 million-2 million 6 16.67%
 
2 million-2.5 million 4 11.11%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 13.89%
 
Over 3 million 8 22.22%
 
Total:36

PS4 November 2016 numbers estimate should be around 1.2m. The 1.1m was the first leak which was confirmed to be off after one year.



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Switch ahead of PS4 so far. However PS4 had a pretty good software lineup for the first 5 months of 2016. Switch hasn't really had anything special yet this year (except Mario Maker 2 which just released a few days ago). If Switch is selling this well with no special releases so far this year, then imagine how well it will sell for the remainder of the year.

Switch is about to have a very solid second half of the year in regards to software. It's already outpacing PS4. It's about to shoot far ahead. These numbers are very telling. PS4 is a very strong selling system, but the Switch is about to shoot far ahead.



Here's a chart:

EDIT: Fixed chart title.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 05 July 2019

Back in 2016,.... the US was still fully behinde the xbox, and it was giveing competition to the PS4.

Remember back in 2015-2016?
"The power of the cloud"
"DX12 gives a power boost advantage"

Back then Xbox Fans still believed in getting Scalebound + Fable.

(fable was cancelled + studio closed, mid way through 2016)
(offical word on Scalebound, was first in early 2017)

Basically americans bought way too many xbox's :p

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 05 July 2019

Switch will win in the US, probably lifetime. It'll obviously win in Japan too, it's the European sales that are going to let it down and hold it back from winning globally.

PS4 may have a chance to win NPD years for 2019 vs 2022, 2020 vs 2023 with it's sale spread over a longer period. Relatively switch will be more front loaded I think, like most Nintendo consoles. But this and the next 2 years NPD should be in the bag for Switch.


JRPGfan said:

Back in 2016,.... the US was still fully behinde the xbox, and it was giveing competition to the PS4.

It didn't change after 2016. In fact 2017 while selling 0.2m more in USA was actually worse considering how strong global sales were in 2017. The xbox competition in USA never really stopped

2016 - 29.1% of PS4 Sales in USA
2017 - 26.5% of PS4 Sales in USA
2018 - 29.4% of PS4 Sales in USA

In 2018 PS4 sold 5.28m while XBO sold 4.31m, It's not a massive gap. PS4/XBO cannibalise each others sales and while in most regions it's PS4 crushing the XBO in the USA they are both reasonably close and limiting each others sales.

Last edited by Barkley - on 05 July 2019

Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


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Barkley said:

Switch will win in the US, probably lifetime. It'll obviously win in Japan too, it's the European sales that are going to let it down and hold it back from winning globally.

PS4 may have a chance to win NPD years for 2019 vs 2022, 2020 vs 2023 with it's sale spread over a longer period. Relatively switch will be more front loaded I think, like most Nintendo consoles. But this and the next 2 years NPD should be in the bag for Switch.

Switch shouldn't have a problem to have a long tail. It's Nintendo's only console now, so Nintendo's top development teams don't spread their attention between two consoles anymore. More high profile games, more sales.

Plus Switch sold so well that it made past the two-year-mark without price drop or revision. This leaves all the options to reinvigorate sales for a long period of time. The European market is historically more price-sensitive, so Switch can gain ground on the PS4 over time. Globally, Switch will come out on top in lifetime sales because the small deficits in Europe and the rest of the world aren't going to offset the clear wins in Japan and North America.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Azantix said:
Huh, maybe Switch is on pace to beat PS4 lifetime? Maybe? I'm not sure, I'm not exactly the best at predicting stuff like this hehe

In the US and Japan definitely, but PS dominates Europe and RoW so much that I figure they've got a solid chance of winning anyway.



In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.

Switch is at 5,778,903 WW for 2019 and PS4 was at 5,246,935 WW for 2016. Switch is winning NPD by 9.7% so far, and WW by 10.1% so actually in WW comparison it's doing slightly better. 

PS4 sold 17.5m in 2016 and Switch will sell 19.5-20m this year. It's the legs of the PS4 that are going to be the killer.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Shadow1980 said:

Here's a chart:

Chart says Switch vs. 3DS in the heather ^^