If PS5 and Anaconda were very similar, then MS could have some serious hardware problems in terms of sales. If they can't say we're clearly the best by far, they have to rely on being the cheapest, and that's continuing to try and sell XB1S(AD) and that's already not working out for them. XB1X would be the only thing they could make a move on and subsidize it to match Pro, but how would existing XB1X owners feel when their super high end console just drops in price like that? Will they be willing to pay top dollar for Anaconda and it's later X edition? This is something that makes me think that Lockhart makes sense. If Lockhart basically matches Pro specs and price yet uses state of the art tech, that's a way in which MS can please everyone. Just drop XB1X and for those that take the time to wonder why Lockhart is weaker on paper, well, hope they also take the time to watch DF explain why I guess.

If both are using Navi, even if XB was willing to subsidize Anaconda, there's only so much more powerful they can make the GPU if PS also shoots for high end. Would MS try and use more CPU cores to market performance superiority? 12TF Navi with 12 Ryzen cores, and maybe a 4TF Navi with 8-12 Ryzen cores?

The problem I see with Lockhart is that I highly doubt MS wants to subsidize any HW.  Or if they do, it's not by much.  MS has made it clear that online is where they see their future.  I could see them launching the Anaconda for $499, like they did the XBO and the X, with Lockhart remaining $100 lower than it for the remainder of the gen.  I think MS wants to just make some profit off of the HW while they still see any relevance in producing their own HW.  They know they still have some die hard fans that will prefer Xbox over the PS, regardless of price or power, even if those numbers are dwindling.  My guess is they will try to profit off the HW or at least break even, from the start.  Maybe they figure that a $399 console that is so much weaker than the one that is just $100 more, and with both of them being available Day 1, wouldn't sell well.

MS's problem, as a whole, next gen comes from the fact that Sony is willing to take a decent loss on their HW at launch (as well as EU and Japan loyalty), whereas MS seems to have loss their stomach for it.  My guess is that the PS5 will launch for $449-$499, but will be more powerful than the Anaconda.  And apparently the executive editor of Game Informer had been hearing rumblings at E3 that the PS5 will actually be the more powerful system next gen.  Now, it may not be by that much, but any advantage in Sony's favor draws it closer to sealing the deal on next gen.

@thismentiel
I think sony sealed the deal 3 years ago when the exclusives for them started killing it and MS showed pretty much nothing.

With Phil mentioning he doesn't have to sell new hardware, just software for the hardware, it does sound as if it's more likely that they are going to stick with the XB1 line up as it exists now and simply add a new next gen console to the mix. If PS is going to keep the PS4's around, then MS doesn't really need Lockhart. The problem in this situation is if they don't want to subsidize hardware, then the XB1X is always going to be $50 to $100 more than Pro, and that's not good for MS. I can't believe MS will drop XB1 and make XB1X the base, but would they drop XB1X and push those type of buyers to upgrade to Anaconda?

What if this entire time they've been keeping the dies that didn't make the cut for XB1X, so they could use them for another 'new' XB1 model when Anaconda launches? One that they could price directly against Pro. If they 'dropped' XB1X and came out with the 'XB1Y' at like 4.8TF, at $299, I don't think XB1X owners would be upset at all in that scenario. They could even redesign the APU somewhat with less CU's when they decide to use the 7nm process, and instead of the old 16nm dies, they could use brand new 7nm dies.

If Anaconda were $399, and PS5 had higher performance, in terms of GPU, then PS will still have to be careful with the price. If both consoles were practically identical in specs, except that Anaconda was 10TF and PS5 was 12TF let's say, I think PS could get away with $449 at most. If PS wanted to really stick it to MS, they could hope MS is already subsidizing, or really doesn't want to, and drop PS5 to $399 as well. That would end up with a similar impact to what the PS4 had against the XB1, even though PS4 was cheaper on top of the extra performance. The more it resembled the PS4 and XB1 launch price to performance gap, the worse it would be for Anaconda.

This is also why it's hard not to believe that either Anaconda is going to be the highest performer period, or that MS has something else cooked up as an ace in the hole. Unless there are a tonne of quality games coming, they are going to need some type of stronghold in terms of hardware.

Well, it has sorta been MS's MO for all 3 gens.  At least in the last 1/3 of their consoles' lives.  Xbox wasn't performing very well, so they pulled SW support early to switch to 360.  360 was doing well, but they figured focusing on quick, cheap games for Kinect was more profitable than developing AAA games.  Probably the same reason they wanted XBO w/ Kinect to be a thing.  And XBO is the same story as the OG Xbox.  Not a good sign that they stated they bought all of those studios mainly for more content for xCloud and GamerPass.  Are we about to see a quantity over quality in the future?  The quality of most of their final games on XBO isn't very reassuring.

Well, unless the XBO sales just complete plummet next year, I'm sure they are still keeping it around for a year or two after the Anaconda launches.  Will they actually support it past GamerPass/xCloud?  We'll have to wait and see.  Either way, they aren't going to keep it around for the whole gen, regardless of the generationless BS they spouted about mid-gen.  Sony won't either.  It will be like any other gen.  The old consoles will last 1-3 years on store shelves after their predecessor has launched, then be discontinued.

I highly doubt we will see another XBO SKU.  Definitely not one with different specs.  There would be no point in it and I'm sure MS is fully aware of that.  There's also little point in competing with the Pro.  That ship has sailed.  If they wanted to do that, they would have subsidized the X and launched it at the same $399 price point, as well as pumped out some more high quality games.

My guess is that both consoles will be within ~10% of each other performance-wise, while they will only be ~$50 apart from each other, if not the same price.  In that situation, it would be a clear PS victory.  They already have EU and Japan on lock, when compared to Xbox.  NA will most likely stay the same split it is, now, with PS5 being B/C with the PS4.  Many of the PS4 gamers will want to stay in the ecosystem they were in this gen, and if the power and price are almost identical, there is no reason to leave.  Especially if you want to play more GOW, Horizon, Spider-Man, GT, Infamous, and/or TLoU.

Good points.

In terms of a lesser TF XB1X basically, it would save on costs instead of dropping X and launching Lockhart in it's place, and it may also come in handy if the Navi RDNA TF looks low on paper in comparison to the X Polaris GCN TF. If X is 6.0TF and Scarlett ends up 8.0TF-10TF, that won't seem like near the upgrade that the X was, even though at a metal level it's a significant leap. By making the 'new' X model closer to Pro's GPU spec, they could better compete on price, and at the same time make Scarlett look like it's twice the performance or more. The X owners who want to upgrade will regardless, but for the semi hardcore and casual audience, why buy Scarlett if it's not that much more powerful than the X, since they won't likely understand the difference between an 8 core Jaguar vs an 8 core Zen 2?

A 1.4TF to 4.8TF to 10TF gap would make a lot more sense than 1.4TF to 6.0TF to 10TF. That's if they don't hit 12TF, because a 1.4TF to 6.0TF to 12TF works just as good really from a marketing perspective, it just makes it tougher to compete with Pro. Maybe the mid range consoles will be discontinued and won't matter, and maybe they stay but sell even less, making it a non issue for the most part.

I would have to guess if both companies try to push the limits of next gen, that they will end up very close because they should both restrict themselves to a $499 price point max. Now if either company is going to do what's necessary to make sure they have the performance crown and have to price the console higher because of it, it would have to be XB. PS will not go above $499, even if PS5 is seen as weaker because of it.