Quantcast
Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Speaking of polls, on the Wikipedia page they now added tons of graphs for each candidate and for them grouped together: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries



Around the Network
Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd call it the "make a name before shit gets serious" game. And position yourself and your policies.

Some will probably drop out soon. Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, Inslee and Hickenlooper are constantly polling very badly without any improvements. I don't think they will last very long anymore. They might wait for the first debate and see the reactions, but if they don't improve from there I'm sure they'll see the writing on the wall, too.

I don't know what to make out of Messam and Ryan yet, they're not even named in most polls yet. And now with Swalwell, there's probably yet another for the "other" list, at least for now...

It's not even the first debate. The ones not qualifying for the debates in the first place are in no position to get better to begin with. So I think the ones who do, and that includes Yang and Gabbard at this point, are better off as they can present their ideas. I think from the 19 who are named by the Wikipedia as important candidates + Biden (who is probably running), only 10 I think are safe by either unique donors or constantly polling high enough. As the polling criteria is very loose and it is still time to get donations, some more will qualify but five candidates will probably fail at this point and drop out. The ones that are in danger of not reaching the first debates are in my opinion Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell and Williamson. Probably only half of them will make it to the debates.

The the next winnowing will be probably the criteria for the second round off debates.

SpokenTruth said:

From the candidates perspective, it's even pre-game for the "make a name for yourself" period.  This is really the tail end of the exploratory committee period.  We always have front runners at this point that never make it to the finals and nobodies who go the distance. Starting in the summer, that's when we move into the real "make a name for yourself" period.  That's when it starts to count.  When ads start rolling.  Interviews happen.  When the first debates start to shape the field.

And I agree that those you listed (plus Castro) will probably drop this summer.

Fivethirtyeight has looked at past primaries and looked what early polling tells us. And adjusted for name recognition early polling gives a somewhat decent indication who might have a chance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-1/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-2/

I'm interested in part 3 with conclusions and probably a polling average adjusted for name recognition for current candidates.

Excellent links.  Definitely looking forward to part 3.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Two potential candidates have scheduled announcements for next week.

Seth Moulton - 4/22
Joe Biden - 4/24



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

The Andrew Yang town hall was great. He is a man of the people.



I just watched Bernie Sanders town hall and found it hilarious how they worded their questions in a way to frame him badly but it backfired every single time they tried to do so. Especially when the host asked about healthcare:

Q: who gets private healthcare? 60-70% of the audience raises hands, including Bernie and the hosts
Q: Who agrees with Bernie's Plan to... Gets cut off by a cheering crowd who all raise their hands again except the hosts

He really showed that his movement is about the people and for the people, and not punitive to companies or rich people - just wanting them to pay their fair share, too.



Around the Network

With this much genuinely interesting competition, a boring no ideas centrist like Biden might not make it as far as some expect. There's already polls suggesting that if Biden were to drop out, Bernie would benefit the most, but so would many other candidates, and not the centrist ones. Biden is riding high now, but it's almost entirely on brand power from his time as Obama's VP. Once he opens his mouth, people will begin to wonder why he's even there, and why we need someone like him when plenty of our candidates could win while presenting way more exciting futures for the country.



HylianSwordsman said:
With this much genuinely interesting competition, a boring no ideas centrist like Biden might not make it as far as some expect. There's already polls suggesting that if Biden were to drop out, Bernie would benefit the most, but so would many other candidates, and not the centrist ones. Biden is riding high now, but it's almost entirely on brand power from his time as Obama's VP. Once he opens his mouth, people will begin to wonder why he's even there, and why we need someone like him when plenty of our candidates could win while presenting way more exciting futures for the country.

Just barely. At the rate at which Buttigieg is rising (17% on the latest Change Research poll, against 20 for Sanders and 21 for Biden; 21 for Buttigieg and 26 for Sanders if we exclude Biden), there's a chance that Buttigieg will replace Biden at the Top, not Sanders.

Biden isn't riding so high now anymore, he dropped quite a bit already. Let's see if his upcoming announcement will boost his numbers again. But yeah, I expect that he will drop down in numbers again over the coming weeks and months



Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Sanders...in alphabetical order. My top 3. I would be thrilled with either of them at this point.

Buttigieg - The most well rounded candidate I've ever seen. Military intelligence officer, gay, young, Christian, speaks 7 languages, concert pianist, Rhodes Scholar from Oxford and a Harvard graduate...

Gabbard - Military combat medic, young, open to change (see LGBT issues), Hindu and a martial arts instructor...

Sanders - A champion of civil rights and progressive policies for decades. He was the democratic socialist before democratic socialism became cool (in the US). With nearly 30 years experience in Congress, he could act the fastest in establishing his Cabinet and taking action.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Out of the dems running I like Yang and Gabbard.
Yang because he has a really solid platform and is talking about problems none else is.
Gabbard so she can get is out of all these wars and end US intervention.



For me, the top 3 would be Sanders, Gravel, and Gabbard. Too bad Gravel already announced that he would fold after the debates. But considering his advanced age and deteriorating health (he needs a walking cane, for starters), it's understandable; the risk of him dying in office would be very real.

All 3 have almost the same policies, and both Gravel and Sanders were both democratic socialists before that was cool in the US, and neither hold back at criticizing the US when needed.

Apparently, the Fox News Town Hall with Bernie has boosted his support according to the Guardian. I certainly wouldn't mind if that is true. We'll see in the next polls, I guess.

SpokenTruth said:
Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Sanders...in alphabetical order. My top 3. I would be thrilled with either of them at this point.

Buttigieg - The most well rounded candidate I've ever seen. Military intelligence officer, gay, young, Christian, speaks 7 languages, concert pianist, Rhodes Scholar from Oxford and a Harvard graduate...

Buttigieg has some fatal flaws for me, especially that he doesn't support single payer healthcare or tuition free public colleges. But of course, he would still be lightyears better than Trump.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 20 April 2019