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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 14 December 2018
Shadow1980 said:
tbone51 said:

Results are in


Switch: 1360K
PS4: 1480K
XBO: 1340K

 

Was super close

 

Shadow1980 said:
PS4: 1.5M
XBO: 1.2M
NS: 1M

I was almost on the button for the PS4. Everything else... not so much.

No 3DS number this time, I see.

I just got up a little while ago. I'll start posting some charts after I eat.

3DS-258k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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PortisheadBiscuit on 14 December 2018
Train wreck said:
Megiddo said:

This is the same insider who said that he wasn't absolutely certain that the PS4 would win November last year, correct?

And people still put any sort of weight on what he says?

Here's what we actually know.

1)Amazon on Sunday took 3 times longer to sell out of Spider-Man bundles this year than it took for them to sell out of the PS4 slim last year.

2)Unlike last year Sony wasn't only relying on one SKU on sale. It also had the RDR 2 Pro bundle and the CoD BLOPS 4 slim bundle.

3)The Brickseek inventory results for Thanksgiving/Black Friday were hilariously tilted in Sony's favor, outnumbering Switch consoles 5:1 to 10:1 depending on location.

4)This year includes Cyber Monday which just means more sales altogether.

I look at the data above and the absolutely miserable history of the insider when it comes to November NPD and I think it's far, far, far, far more "bold" to think that PS4 is going to drop 25% YoY (as a lot of predictions in this thread have it) compared to being up 10%.

I agree, still surprised by the number of people who still put stock in Benji.

Why? He was right



CosmicSex on 14 December 2018

Xbox and Switch are nearly tied.
PS4 by 120k. This is fascinating because it means that Sony both 'undershipped' in relation to last year, and it means they clearly had the insane demand. They were onl avalible for like a few days while the other consoles never actually sold out or only did after an exorbitant amount of time in comparison.



colafitte on 14 December 2018
CosmicSex said:
Xbox and Switch are nearly tied.
PS4 by 120k. This is fascinating because it means that Sony both 'undershipped' in relation to last year, and it means they clearly had the insane demand. They were onl avalible for like a few days while the other consoles never actually sold out or only did after an exorbitant amount of time in comparison.

I want to believe that those 300-400k more PS4 could've sold in November will be instead sold in December with more stock to give us a surprise to all of us.....but, i don't have faith in that happening....XD



Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

But the XB1s had been at $199 not only longer than the PS4 but even right now. MS always goes hard around this time of the year.

What I am taking frm this is just how well the PS4/XB1 can still sell if the price is at $199.

Dare I say if sony drops the price officially to $199 globally around january 2019 and furt

er drops it by $50 around november next year it could actually go on to have its best year ever.

I'm not sure how that goes against what I said.

I a saying I think its the reverse.... the S model is up and the X model is down. The s has all the $199 deals and the X is still a $400 console at best and doesn't have the bonus of being a "new" sku this year.



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zorg1000 on 14 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm not sure how that goes against what I said.

I a saying I think its the reverse.... the S model is up and the X model is down. The s has all the $199 deals and the X is still a $400 console at best and doesn't have the bonus of being a "new" sku this year.

S was $189 last year and X was $499

This year it was $199 and $399



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:

No you missing point of discussion, point was about deals, PS4 official price point is $299, so going from $299 without game to $199 with one brand new game is far better deal than going from $299 without game to $299 with one game thats 1.5 years old game and port.

 

Talking about price cuts, PS4 actually had price cut in its second October to $350 (so less than 2 years on market), and in November of that year was selling for $350 with one game, Switch still has launch price point.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2015/10/08/ps4-price-drop-announced-for-north-america

And my point is that the NS is still under 2 years old. And this is only its second holiday season. Its price of entry is also lower than the price of entry for the PS4 at the same time in its life.

It shouldn't need deals like what the PS4 is currently employing to sell well. And it selling as well as it is selling isn't a big deal cause its performing as well as any well performing console before it. Even the XB1 is putting up god numbers this month. 

You say the switch still has its launch price.... it took sony 3 years to get to the current switch launch price. 



zorg1000 on 14 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

No you missing point of discussion, point was about deals, PS4 official price point is $299, so going from $299 without game to $199 with one brand new game is far better deal than going from $299 without game to $299 with one game thats 1.5 years old game and port.

 

Talking about price cuts, PS4 actually had price cut in its second October to $350 (so less than 2 years on market), and in November of that year was selling for $350 with one game, Switch still has launch price point.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2015/10/08/ps4-price-drop-announced-for-north-america

And my point is that the NS is still under 2 years old. And this is only its second holiday season. Its price of entry is also lower than the price of entry for the PS4 at the same time in its life.

It shouldn't need deals like what the PS4 is currently employing to sell well. And it selling as well as it is selling isn't a big deal cause its performing as well as any well performing console before it. Even the XB1 is putting up god numbers this month. 

You say the switch still has its launch price.... it took sony 3 years to get to the current switch launch price. 

Why are you comparing price without context of the hardware?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Madword on 14 December 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Train wreck said:

I agree, still surprised by the number of people who still put stock in Benji.

Why? He was right

The guy has information based on his store, but he does ride on the coat tails of others.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
colafitte said:
CosmicSex said:
Xbox and Switch are nearly tied.
PS4 by 120k. This is fascinating because it means that Sony both 'undershipped' in relation to last year, and it means they clearly had the insane demand. They were onl avalible for like a few days while the other consoles never actually sold out or only did after an exorbitant amount of time in comparison.

I want to believe that those 300-400k more PS4 could've sold in November will be instead sold in December with more stock to give us a surprise to all of us.....but, i don't have faith in that happening....XD

honestly the fact of the matter is that we know exactly how a $299 PS4 will sell now. Or even a $250+game PS4. It will sell way less than it did last year.

The only reason the PS4 won november was because of the $199 deal. Sony didn't even have to put in a game. If there are no deals for december of a similar ilk... PS4 will be at best flat YOY r down by as much as 300k.

I feel the market sony can sell to at $299 has been saturated.