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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Amnesia on 02 July 2018

I was septical still 1 month ago, but niw I can ber thet will ship 21M.
Dont forget that their target is 20M from April 1st 2018 to April 1st 2019.



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Supermario28 on 02 July 2018
Amnesia said:
I was septical still 1 month ago, but niw I can ber thet will ship 21M.
Dont forget that their target is 20M from April 1st 2018 to April 1st 2019.

Yeah i did the calculation form April 2018 to end of March 2019.

I just used the data from January to May 2018 to have an average sales number per month. (880k that i rounded up to 1000k)

Then I multiplied this result by the number of months in FY 2018,  without holiday season and with an increase of 33% in early 2019.



Amnesia on 03 July 2018

If we compare the fiscal year cumulation, there is almost no doubt...19,5M is the minimum I expect.

It already outsell the previous fiscal year with only Nintendo Labo to cover the first 3 months of fiscal year 2018.

The heavy load is starting to come from end of June and it will end with SSBU for Chrismass.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 03 July 2018

Amnesia on 03 July 2018

EDIT : it will destroy it imo.



Megiddo on 03 July 2018

@Amnesia Right, but last year during these months there were supply shortages which limited supply.

Also I think that arrow is pointing towards Mario Kart. Splatoon released sometime in summer (I'd guess week 29 from your graph).



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Amnesia on 03 July 2018

ah...So I have added "Splatoon 2" at the wrong place, I am fixing this right now

Last edited by Amnesia - on 03 July 2018

Rocketjay8 on 05 July 2018
maxleresistant said:
nemo37 said:

There are plenty of games that do that. Just look at the recent Tomb Raider games, the Battlefront/Battlefield titles, EA Sports titles,  etc. All of these are based on the engines of their predecessors and many share assets with their predecessors. In the case of Smash specifically, why would you create a new graphics engine and assets when the Switch is not far more graphically powerful than Wii U? 

I do agree though that if Nintendo wanted to reach 20 million this year, they should have had more big hitter lined up throughout the year (not just at the end), hopefully they have a more robust output in 2019.

I'm not saying it is wrong to use the same engine. The thing is every smash Bros episode are a leap in terms of graphics, content, characters. So there was obviously this kind of expectation for a smash Bros switch.

I'm just saying why this episode doesn't feel like a leap, why the game doesn't have the positive buzz it should have.

 

Personally, I think the series needs a complete overhaul, it's peaked with melee and since then each new episode have been disappointing.
Super Smash Bros Brawl 2008 Fighting Nintendo 6.64 2.57 2.67 1.03 12.91


The_Liquid_Laser on 07 July 2018
Supermario28 said:

I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.

According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.

 

So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:

888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)

Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)

Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season

It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.

 

Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target

These calculations seem fairly reasonable to me.

I have been fairly pessimistic about Nintendo so far for this year, but I am going to have to amend my predictions.  I was originally projecting 12m, but now I think they will sell at least 16m, maybe more.  Here are two big games that I didn't think they'd get.

1) Pokemon Let's Go - It's not going to sell quite as well as a mainline Pokemon game, but it is still going to sell extremely well.  Kids and Pokemon Go players are going to want this game making it a huge holiday title.  I was confident that GameFreak couldn't get out a mainline Pokemon title this year, and while I was technically right, this game is really the best possible spinoff they could have ever put out.

2) Fortnite - This game is huge right now, and Switch is really the ideal platform to play it on.  I was shocked to find out just how much money people are spending on this "free to play" game.  

"In a survey of 1,000 Fortnite players, financial education company Lendedu found that 68.8% of them have spent at least some money on in-game Fortnite purchases. And among those who spend cash inside the wildly popular battle royale game, average spending tops $84.67."
http://fortune.com/2018/06/27/fortnite-average-spending/

I wouldn't be surprised if Switch hardware sales just magically start going up even though it won't have any big retail games until the end of the year.  Fortnite is going to be the game moving hardware until Nintendo can out their big first party games. 



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

maxleresistant on 13 July 2018
Rocketjay8 said:
maxleresistant said:

I'm not saying it is wrong to use the same engine. The thing is every smash Bros episode are a leap in terms of graphics, content, characters. So there was obviously this kind of expectation for a smash Bros switch.

I'm just saying why this episode doesn't feel like a leap, why the game doesn't have the positive buzz it should have.

 

Personally, I think the series needs a complete overhaul, it's peaked with melee and since then each new episode have been disappointing.
Super Smash Bros Brawl 2008 Fighting Nintendo 6.64 2.57 2.67 1.03 12.91

Peaked in terms of quality, not sales. I was clearly talking about the content of the game.



Chorlin on 01 August 2018

So, now that we have the first quarter report, what do you guys think?