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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

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Angelus said:
bubblegamer said:

Stating there is a problem is contributing to it? I don't see mods solving anything. It's always the same reply. Passive moderation ftw.

Stating there's a problem is one thing. You don't think there's a good discussion happening in this thread...fine, no problem. You didn't leave it at that though, did you?

"Only circle jerks allowed here"

Had to get that in there, take a shot at everyone who's participated in this thread, regardless of the quality of their posts, or their actual individual willingness to have an open minded discussion. If you don't see the irony in your post, maligning the lack of "great discussion," while simultaneously throwing everyone here under the same bus of being willfully obstinate, then maybe you're not even personally capable of great discussion.

Edit: Also, if you have a problem with the moderation on this site, bring it up in the moderator thread, or contact one of the head mods privately. This isn't the place for it.

I agree 1000% with all of this



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Shipped?  Maybe

Sold through? Nope

And I do think that people over here are overestimating Pokemon. 

My reasoning? Well, X/Y is the best selling Pokemon game on the 3DS and yet it only gave it a 7% increase YoY (allowing it to reach 14.4m that year).  And Sun/Moon was the second best selling game and it only gave it a boost of 2% YoY.

Now, don't get me wrong, I think the Switch will definitely be up YoY but not enought to make it pass the 18m mark for the fiscal year. 



quickrick said:
BlackBeauty said:

U

Nice moving goal post there.

We’re talking about ports. Mario Kart 8 deluxe isn’t a brand new entry. And yes it’s bigger than zelda etc that’s true.

But deluxe also outsold the original Wii U version. 

And ok nothing to buy on switch? But why is Mario Kart 8 still top ten a YEAR LATER?

A port....

 

They could re release melee again on switch and it will still sell 15 million copies. Port or not port don’t matter it will sell regardless. i mean just look at amazon. 

 

Mario kart will always keep on selling till a new mario kart  comes out, what i''m trying to say is had it come out at the sametime as mario odyssey, it would probably never catch up sales wise that was my point.  historically smash has never sold sold over 15 million, not even when you combine the 3ds and wiiu versions of the game. why would i look at amazon? it's never been good for software, and now its been off on hardware for 5 months.  

You’re contradicting and lying to yourself.

Mario Kart will keep selling? Then explain the Wii U Mario kart? Why is it the lowest selling one? If it keeps selling? 

Smash has been selling more and more with every game. Why would it be different this time? Esp when it’s on a switch.

A port wouldn’t make a difference because we already have proof to show that. You’re just continuing to lie to yourself and bend reality.



BlackBeauty said:
quickrick said:

Mario kart will always keep on selling till a new mario kart  comes out, what i''m trying to say is had it come out at the sametime as mario odyssey, it would probably never catch up sales wise that was my point.  historically smash has never sold sold over 15 million, not even when you combine the 3ds and wiiu versions of the game. why would i look at amazon? it's never been good for software, and now its been off on hardware for 5 months.  

You’re contradicting and lying to yourself.

Mario Kart will keep selling? Then explain the Wii U Mario kart? Why is it the lowest selling one? If it keeps selling? 

Smash has been selling more and more with every game. Why would it be different this time? Esp when it’s on a switch.

A port wouldn’t make a difference because we already have proof to show that. You’re just continuing to lie to yourself and bend reality.

mario kart 8 sold 8.42 million on user base of 13.5 million on wiiu, do i really have to explain why it sold so low? it because wiiu was a huge failure, but mario kart was the best selling game on wiiu by a huge margin and sold to 63% of the user base which is astonishing

smash 4 sold on 2 platfroms and out sold smash on wii by like a million, so we don't have a proper comparison, i know smash will sell, but i'm expecting 10-12 million.



chakkra said:

Shipped?  Maybe

Sold through? Nope

And I do think that people over here are overestimating Pokemon. 

My reasoning? Well, X/Y is the best selling Pokemon game on the 3DS and yet it only gave it a 7% increase YoY (allowing it to reach 14.4m that year).  And Sun/Moon was the second best selling game and it only gave it a boost of 2% YoY.

Now, don't get me wrong, I think the Switch will definitely be up YoY but not enought to make it pass the 18m mark for the fiscal year. 

Pokemon by itself may not have the power to have it reach 20 million shipped. But it's got Smash Bros, releasing right behind it. Those are two of the biggest system sellers they have releasing within three weeks of each other, and in between them is Black Friday. Then add Super Mario Party on that list, which I think a lot of people here are underestimating, That game can do great numbers in October to get the momentum rolling and building right in time before the holiday season. Compare those three to the three they had the last three months of last year, Fire Emblem Warriors, Super Mario Odyssey, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2. It's no contest, this year's holiday lineup far exceeds last year's. I love Xenoblade 2, but come on now, that's not a system seller, neither is Fire Emblem Warriors. Super Mario Party is a far bigger system seller than both of those games and it's the third wheel behind Smash and Pokemon which one could make the case that those are just as big, if not even bigger system sellers than 3D Mario.

Add those three to go along with all their other 1st party titles that are still selling great numbers. 4 out of the top 10 best selling titles in the latest weekly numbers are Switch titles that came out last year, including Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart, which were launch date and launch window respectively. Those 4 games aren't going anywhere, anytime soon. 3D Mario, Open-world Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Pokemon, and Smash Bros., those are 6 of their 8 'A' tier system sellers right there, along with one of their 'B' tier games in Super Mario Party. I don't think it'll even be close, this year's holiday season is going to be up considerably over last year's to go along with the fact that it is consistently outpacing last year Week over Week. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1# 

Long story short: I think it it will reach that 20 million shipped figure. As for 18 million on the fiscal year, I assume that's sold and not shipped, because it'll absolutely reach the mark if it's shipped. Sold? Yes, but barely, I think.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

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BlackBeauty said:
Otter said:
hmm, I think people are over estimating pokemon. Its visibly not a mainline game. I think they will fall short unlesss we see a pricecut

Pokemon Go wasn't a mainline game yet it's the most successful pokemon game to date.

Are you saying a game based on the most successful Pokemon game of all time won't be successful?

The scary thing should be that Let's Go would be too successful that the main games will be treated as a secondary thing to The Pokemon Company. Similar to how Persona has eclipsed SMT.

Pokemon Go itself already affected the company outlook as they've been producing way more mobile efforts and reducing console games. Even the president himslef thought the switch won't be successful that was one of the reasons why the main games are late. They stuck around with the 3ds in 2017 despite Gamefreak having the NX devkit since 2015.

Agree, people here definitely underestimate Pokemon Lets Go no overestimating, its main Pokemon game that aims for broader audince compared to core RPG Pokemon, so this game easily be more popular than core RPG Pokemon game.

 

PAOerfulone said:
chakkra said:

Shipped?  Maybe

Sold through? Nope

And I do think that people over here are overestimating Pokemon. 

My reasoning? Well, X/Y is the best selling Pokemon game on the 3DS and yet it only gave it a 7% increase YoY (allowing it to reach 14.4m that year).  And Sun/Moon was the second best selling game and it only gave it a boost of 2% YoY.

Now, don't get me wrong, I think the Switch will definitely be up YoY but not enought to make it pass the 18m mark for the fiscal year. 

Pokemon by itself may not have the power to have it reach 20 million shipped. But it's got Smash Bros, releasing right behind it. Those are two of the biggest system sellers they have releasing within three weeks of each other, and in between them is Black Friday. Then add Super Mario Party on that list, which I think a lot of people here are underestimating, That game can do great numbers in October to get the momentum rolling and building right in time before the holiday season. Compare those three to the three they had the last three months of last year, Fire Emblem Warriors, Super Mario Odyssey, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2. It's no contest, this year's holiday lineup far exceeds last year's. I love Xenoblade 2, but come on now, that's not a system seller, neither is Fire Emblem Warriors. Super Mario Party is a far bigger system seller than both of those games and it's the third wheel behind Smash and Pokemon which one could make the case that those are just as big, if not even bigger system sellers than 3D Mario.

Add those three to go along with all their other 1st party titles that are still selling great numbers. 4 out of the top 10 best selling titles in the latest weekly numbers are Switch titles that came out last year, including Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart, which were launch date and launch window respectively. Those 4 games aren't going anywhere, anytime soon. 3D Mario, Open-world Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Pokemon, and Smash Bros., those are 6 of their 8 'A' tier system sellers right there, along with one of their 'B' tier games in Super Mario Party. I don't think it'll even be close, this year's holiday season is going to be up considerably over last year's to go along with the fact that it is consistently outpacing last year Week over Week. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1# 

Long story short: I think it it will reach that 20 million shipped figure. As for 18 million on the fiscal year, I assume that's sold and not shipped, because it'll absolutely reach the mark if it's shipped. Sold? Yes, but barely, I think.

Agree, October-December for Switch with MarioParty, Pokemon and Smash Bros will be very strong quarter for Switch, espacily with maybe some bundles or Black Friday deals not to mentione possible price cut, so we probable talking about 10m+ for that quarter (last year was 7.25m).

 

 

quickrick said:
BlackBeauty said:

U

Nice moving goal post there.

We’re talking about ports. Mario Kart 8 deluxe isn’t a brand new entry. And yes it’s bigger than zelda etc that’s true.

But deluxe also outsold the original Wii U version. 

And ok nothing to buy on switch? But why is Mario Kart 8 still top ten a YEAR LATER?

A port....

 

They could re release melee again on switch and it will still sell 15 million copies. Port or not port don’t matter it will sell regardless. i mean just look at amazon. 

 

Mario kart will always keep on selling till a new mario kart  comes out, what i''m trying to say is had it come out at the sametime as mario odyssey, it would probably never catch up sales wise that was my point. 

historically smash has never sold sold over 15 million, not even when you combine the 3ds and wiiu versions of the game. why would i look at amazon? it's never been good for software, and now its been off on hardware for 5 months.  

MK8D from start of year is selling stronger than Mario Odyssey despite point that MK8D launched 6 months earlier and thats a port.

Historically 3D Zelda also never had such a great sales, same goes for 3D Mario, Splatoon, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Kirby, probably Mario Tennis, Mario Party...so point that Smash Bros never sold more than 13.5m and that Switch version will not sell more dont hold water, its obvious stronger games are selling great on Switch, with all on that mind Smash Bros Ultimate will probably be best selling Smash Bros game ever and we probable talking around 15m.



Currently, as it stands, it ain't happening.

But they can redeem themselves with a September Direct that confirms more games for the next 4 months.

As it stands though, tieing last year's numbers is probably what's going to happen. A price drop would be more effective than what they're doing right now, if I'm gonna be honest.



A single thing, either a game, or a price cut or something else, won't be enough, but there could be a lot of combinations of SW releases, price cuts and/or bundles, particularly attractive HW updates and many other things that could help NS reaching that goal, so whether it happens or not mostly depends on Ninty's willingness to make it happen and do what's needed.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

It'll happen guys! Carnival Games will save the day!



1doesnotsimply

I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.

According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.

 

So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:

888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)

Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)

Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season

It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.

 

Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target