Sold through? Nope
And I do think that people over here are overestimating Pokemon.
My reasoning? Well, X/Y is the best selling Pokemon game on the 3DS and yet it only gave it a 7% increase YoY (allowing it to reach 14.4m that year). And Sun/Moon was the second best selling game and it only gave it a boost of 2% YoY.
Now, don't get me wrong, I think the Switch will definitely be up YoY but not enought to make it pass the 18m mark for the fiscal year.
Pokemon by itself may not have the power to have it reach 20 million shipped. But it's got Smash Bros, releasing right behind it. Those are two of the biggest system sellers they have releasing within three weeks of each other, and in between them is Black Friday. Then add Super Mario Party on that list, which I think a lot of people here are underestimating, That game can do great numbers in October to get the momentum rolling and building right in time before the holiday season. Compare those three to the three they had the last three months of last year, Fire Emblem Warriors, Super Mario Odyssey, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2. It's no contest, this year's holiday lineup far exceeds last year's. I love Xenoblade 2, but come on now, that's not a system seller, neither is Fire Emblem Warriors. Super Mario Party is a far bigger system seller than both of those games and it's the third wheel behind Smash and Pokemon which one could make the case that those are just as big, if not even bigger system sellers than 3D Mario.
Add those three to go along with all their other 1st party titles that are still selling great numbers. 4 out of the top 10 best selling titles in the latest weekly numbers are Switch titles that came out last year, including Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart, which were launch date and launch window respectively. Those 4 games aren't going anywhere, anytime soon. 3D Mario, Open-world Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Pokemon, and Smash Bros., those are 6 of their 8 'A' tier system sellers right there, along with one of their 'B' tier games in Super Mario Party. I don't think it'll even be close, this year's holiday season is going to be up considerably over last year's to go along with the fact that it is consistently outpacing last year Week over Week. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1#
Long story short: I think it it will reach that 20 million shipped figure. As for 18 million on the fiscal year, I assume that's sold and not shipped, because it'll absolutely reach the mark if it's shipped. Sold? Yes, but barely, I think.