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In progress NPD predicting tool

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So how has the tool been holding up lately



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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As usual I guess, it's pretty accurate when there's no inflation caused by a mass of SKU's entering the charts



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

05/20/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 45 (-5) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 99 (-11)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb - 100 (-21) - 206.60$

PS4 : 62 + 15 = 77 points (-14) ; XBO : 2 points (-12) ; NS : 155 + 66 = 221 points (+12)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 5 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 33 (-6) - 399.99$
6 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 74 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 88 (-14) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 66 (-6) - 399.99$

PS4 : 195 + 185 = 380 points (+5) ; XBO : 86 + 27 + 13 = 126 points (-25) ; NS : 210 + 190 = 400 points (-35)


- Gamestop :

1 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 128 (-57)
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 154 (-63)
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 170 (-65)

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GG - 7 (+10)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GG - 29 (+32)

PS4 : 37 + 16 = 53 points (-75) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 24 points (-371)

Overall :

1 - NS : 280.8 points (-368.4) ; Month Average : 445.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 190.6 points (-85.2) ; Month Average : 271.6 points/day ; 0.61 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 34.8 points (-19.0) ; Month Average : 57.6 points/day ; 0.13 (-)



April numbers leaked btw
Switch: 227k
PS4: 148k
Xbox: 106k



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

Symbios63 said:


The cliff™ has arrived.



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May looks like it will be a pretty slow month.



05/22/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 42 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 85 (+1) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 99 (-11)

PS4 : 68 + 16 = 84 points (+7) ; XBO : 0 points (-2) ; NS : 160 + 70 = 230 points (+9)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-5) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-7) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 51 (-18) - 399.99$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 69 (R) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 86 (+2) - 249.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 89 (R) - 399.99$
9 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 94 (-20) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 160 = 355 points (-25) ; XBO : 50 + 32 + 15 + 7 = 104 points (-22) ; NS : 200 + 155 + 12 = 367 points (-33)


- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 42 (R)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 44 (+84)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 111 (+59)
4 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 144 (R)
5 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 157 (-3)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 198 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 108 + 45 = 153 points (+100) ; XBO : 2 points (+2) ; NS : 110 + 29 + 22 = 161 points (+137)

Overall :

1 - NS : 418.4 points (+137.6) ; Month Average : 437.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 291.2 points (+100.6) ; Month Average : 272.9 points/day ; 0.62 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 29.6 points (-5.2) ; Month Average : 54.9 points/day ; 0.13 (-)



So, about April 2019 :

Final tool results :

1 - XBO : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 0.83
3 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.51

NPD results (thanks Slarvax) :

1 - NS : 227k ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 148k ; 0.65
3 - XBO : 106k ; 0.47

As expected, XBO was wrong while NS/PS4 ratio was accurate.

I used those data to try something with the formula. I reduced the amount of point a console got based on the amount of Promotional SKUs in the list. To match the NPD data we got, I had to divide gamestop XBO total points during the first 8 days by : 1+(0.3xnumber of promo SKUs). In this case, it was 1+(0.3*6)=2.8.

Doing this, this is what we get :

1 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.61
3 - XBO : 231.7 points/day ; 0.54


Interestingly, if we apply this to October 2018 (another dude for the tool), this is what we get :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 1.0
XBO : 324.4 points/day ; 0.57

Before the change :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 0.89
XBO : 637.0 points/day ; 1.0

NPD :

PS4 : 340k ; 1.0
XBO : 215k ; 0.62

This looks pretty good, I have to try and see if I should include new bundles in this calculation as well (to see if it has an impact on NS numbers). I will have to look into November and December 2018 as well...



Great work Symbios, looks like these changes are very good for the tool.



jason1637 said:
May looks like it will be a pretty slow month.

Definately, always the slowest month of the year. 

Last years numbers:

[PS4]  221k
[NSW]166k
[XB1] 144k