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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Tax season is almost over and it seems like everybody will be tumbling down !



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03/19/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 42 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (+5) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 15 = 99 points (+5) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 140 + 68 = 208 points (+22)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 13 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 17 (-3) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 46 (+4) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 95 (-55) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 82 (-30) - 299.99$

PS4 : 175 + 150 = 325 points (-) ; XBO : 130 + 60 + 6 = 196 points (-73) ; NS : 195 + 155 = 350 points (-44)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 20 (+1)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 47 (+35)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 103 (-7)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 113 (+3)
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 149 (-41)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 181 (-25)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 26 = 191 points (-16) ; XBO : 44 + 10 = 54 point (-12) ; NS : 104 + 49 = 153 points (+27)

Overall :

1 - NS : 389.4 points (+35.8) ; Month Average : 526.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 335.2 points (-12.0) ; Month Average : 364.5 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 121.2 points (-34.5) ; Month Average : 228.6 points/day ; 0.43 (-0.01)



03/20/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 35 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 80 (+6) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 21 = 103 points (+4) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 140 + 66 = 206 points (-2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 19 (-2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 59 (-13) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 79 (+16) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 165 = 340 points (+15) ; XBO : 120 + 42 + 22 = 184 points (-12) ; NS : 200 + 155 = 355 points (+5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (-1)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 71 (-24)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 101 (+2)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 103 (+10)
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 187 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 149 (-41)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 181 (-25)

PS4 : 160 points (-31) ; XBO : 49 + 7 = 56 point (+2) ; NS : 80 + 50 = 130 points (-23)

Overall :

1 - NS : 365.8 points (-23.6) ; Month Average : 517.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 310.4 points (-24.8) ; Month Average : 361.5 points/day ; 0.70 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 120.6 points (-0.6) ; Month Average : 222.6 points/day ; 0.43 (-)



I've forgotten about this thread for a while now but I was wondering how the accuracy fared in January and February 2019?



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TruckOSaurus said:
I've forgotten about this thread for a while now but I was wondering how the accuracy fared in January and February 2019?

January 2019 :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.76 ; XBO : 0.10
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.69 ; XBO : 0.36 

 

February 2019 : 

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.59 ; PS4 : 0.41
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.78 ; XBO : 0.62 



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Symbios63 said:
TruckOSaurus said:
I've forgotten about this thread for a while now but I was wondering how the accuracy fared in January and February 2019?

January 2019 :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.76 ; XBO : 0.10
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.69 ; XBO : 0.36 

 

February 2019 : 

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.59 ; PS4 : 0.41
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.78 ; XBO : 0.62 

So January had XBO underrepresented while Feb had PS4 underrepresented.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

03/21/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (+4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 78 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 100 (R) - 239.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 23 = 107 points (+4) ; XBO : 1 point (+1) ; NS : 135 + 74 = 209 points (+3)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+7) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 18 (+1) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 48 (+11) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 93 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+45) ; XBO : 125 + 56 + 8 = 189 points (+5) ; NS : 205 + 175 = 380 points (+25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-2)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 73 (-2)
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 100 (+3)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 106 (-5)
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 164 (R)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 194 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 187 (R)

PS4 : 155 + 19 = 174 points (+14) ; XBO : 52 + 4 = 56 point (-) ; NS : 78 + 48 = 126 points (-4)

Overall :

1 - NS : 369.2 points (+3.4) ; Month Average : 509.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 336.6 points (+26.2) ; Month Average : 360.2 points/day ; 0.71 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 123.0 points (+2.4) ; Month Average : 217.3 points/day ; 0.43 (-)



zorg1000 said:
Symbios63 said:

January 2019 :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.76 ; XBO : 0.10
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.69 ; XBO : 0.36 

 

February 2019 : 

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; XBO : 0.59 ; PS4 : 0.41
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.78 ; XBO : 0.62 

So January had XBO underrepresented while Feb had PS4 underrepresented.

Indeed, If I remember it right, XBO was not even charting at all at some point in January which is the likely explanation for the undertracking.

February PS4 is probably linked to lack of new SKU / Promo compared to the other two which is something I will have to add to the formula in some form in the future (I think new bundles / promotions lead to overtracking but I need more data to try and adjust...).



Symbios63 said:
03/21/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (+4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 78 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 100 (R) - 239.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 23 = 107 points (+4) ; XBO : 1 point (+1) ; NS : 135 + 74 = 209 points (+3)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+7) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 18 (+1) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 48 (+11) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 93 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+45) ; XBO : 125 + 56 + 8 = 189 points (+5) ; NS : 205 + 175 = 380 points (+25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-2)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 73 (-2)
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 100 (+3)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 106 (-5)
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 164 (R)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 194 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 187 (R)

PS4 : 155 + 19 = 174 points (+14) ; XBO : 52 + 4 = 56 point (-) ; NS : 78 + 48 = 126 points (-4)

Overall :

1 - NS : 369.2 points (+3.4) ; Month Average : 509.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 336.6 points (+26.2) ; Month Average : 360.2 points/day ; 0.71 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 123.0 points (+2.4) ; Month Average : 217.3 points/day ; 0.43 (-)

Base PS4 is sold out online at Gamestop since yesterday. 



Should we expect a tight race between the PS4 and Switch ? Probably.



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