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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 Sells 5.9 Million Units Worldwide During 2017 Holiday Season, >73.6 Million Sold Through

Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

One piece of hardware and it's not about it selling more than the year before. It's about denying that it was affected. We do have some data already, showing ps4 selling less in 2017 holidays when compared to 2016. By "coincidence", that's when the switch finally got a considerable stock.

I haven't denied any affect. I said it wasn't significant and presented a reason for thinking so. Now, you're changing from 2017, overall, to holiday sales. You also leave out that the PS4 had a new piece of kit come out last holiday (which, by "coincidence" would have helped it sell more during that time). Plus, by how much did the PS4 sell less? 300K. In this context, that is not significant, even before we consider that the Switch wouldn't have been responsible for each one of those sales.

It was up by a few million in the rest of the year. Suddenly dropping in the holidays doesn't make sense on it's own. I didn't change anything, the holidays are still part of 2017 and the switch was too supply constrained to affect it much before that period.



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Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

It was up by a few million in the rest of the year. Suddenly dropping in the holidays doesn't make sense on it's own. I didn't change anything, the holidays are still part of 2017 and the switch was too supply constrained to affect it much before that period.

PS4 sold more in 2017 than 2016. That's.....a bottom line. The drop can be explained by more than the Switch (the Pro). And 300K isn't significant for a system that sold 5.9m in a holiday period, 20.2m in a year, and 73.6m to date.

I already mentioned that it was up by millions for the remaining months. Seeing an actual decrease for the best selling part of the year IS very significant. There's nothing else to say and we're already in circles. Let's just end it.



Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

I already mentioned that it was up by millions for the remaining months. Seeing an actual decrease for the best selling part of the year IS very significant. There's nothing else to say and we're already in circles. Let's just end it.

Inform me, considering what I've said, how 300K is significant? You haven't acknowledged the Pro, for starters, and can't prove that each sale/300K was a Switch one. So help me understand that thinking.

If it was up by millions for all the year, then suddenly sales get lower than the year before on the holidays, THAT is a big difference.



Zekkyou on 11 January 2018
Genos8 said:
CGI-Quality said:

I will. If you can point out, as a matter of fact, just how the two affect each other to any significant degree, I'd be happy to look over it. Otherwise, with the PS4 having its best sales to date, despite the launch of not one, but two, pieces of hardware, I'm inclined to stick by the view presented. 

One piece of hardware and it's not about it selling more than the year before. It's about denying that it was affected. We do have some data already, showing ps4 selling less in 2017 holidays when compared to 2016. By "coincidence", that's when the switch finally got a considerable stock.

Japan is the only major region where the Switch's supply issues persisted late into the year. In the US, EU, etc, the Switch has been readily available for most for months (baring specific weeks, as with the PS4), so i'm not really sure i understand your point there.



Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

If it was up by millions for all the year, then suddenly sales get lower than the year before on the holidays, THAT is a big difference.

If it were down by millions, I'd agree. But not 300K and missing the new addition. And, who's to say those 300K weren't for an Xbox One , too? 

I'm clearly not gonna convince you. I'll wait for the numbers.

Zekkyou said:
Genos8 said:

One piece of hardware and it's not about it selling more than the year before. It's about denying that it was affected. We do have some data already, showing ps4 selling less in 2017 holidays when compared to 2016. By "coincidence", that's when the switch finally got a considerable stock.

Japan is the only major region where the Switch's supply issues persisted late into the year. In the US, EU, etc, the Switch has been readily available for most for months (baring specific weeks, as with the PS4), so i'm not really sure i understand your point there.

Switch was selling out fast (just not instantly) in US and Europe too. This is about the switch not having enough stock to affect others early on. The holiday quarter almost doubled the stock for the previous 7 months and that's when it begun to take away more sales from other systems.



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Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

I'm clearly not gonna convince you. I'll wait for the numbers.

Never mind convincing me. You haven't really presented anything but theories that can be explained away. There's just no way to know it and my point is that you shouldn't tell someone they're wrong if you can't prove how.

I presented a lot. And I'd say that other user is the one that shouldn't be making such a post without proof.



Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

I presented a lot. And I'd say that other user is the one that shouldn't be making such a post.

Not really. You said "he was wrong by default" but can't prove how. He can, at least, make the assertion of higher sales for the year, based on being up YoY and only down 300K (which could be attributed to other things than the Switch) during the entire holiday period. 

Honest question. If in 2018 the switch sells more than ps4 AND ps4 is a lot down year over year, would you still say the same? Because I already find it weird that someone is dismissing a new sucessfull system as if it didn't affect others. How much does each have to sell before admitting the effect?



Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

Honest question. If in 2018 the switch sells more than ps4 AND ps4 is a lot down year over year, would you still say the same? Because I already find it weird that someone is dismissing a new sucessfull system as if it didn't affect others. How much does each have to sell?

It's not a dismissal. The Switch could have made the impact (I've said this from the beginning). However, it just can't be proven and 300K isn't a lot.

Next, if PS4 is down "a lot" (remember, this is key) in 2018 - then sure, I may start to think the Switch has made a bigger impact (well, besides the fact that the PS4 would be 5-years-old at that point, which could also impact the system that way). However, my argument has been about 2016 vs 2017, where the PS4 did its best and was only down 300K (out of 20.2m) in a holiday period, with no way to be sure what the absolute cause was. 

Then there's the other side, if PS4 sells even more in 2018. That possibility is just as high.

I see some contradiction here. Do you think it has high chances to be up YOY in 2018 or that being in it's 5th year will greatly reduce sales? Can't go for the latter and then change to the former if it sells much less. I for instance think the ps4 will face a natural decline for being in it's 5th year AND it will be intensified by the switch presence. Without the switch I think it would fall to 17m but the switch should make it decrease to less than 13m.



Zekkyou on 11 January 2018
Genos8 said:
CGI-Quality said:

If it were down by millions, I'd agree. But not 300K and missing the new addition. And, who's to say those 300K weren't for an Xbox One , too? 

I'm clearly not gonna convince you. I'll wait for the numbers.

Zekkyou said:

Japan is the only major region where the Switch's supply issues persisted late into the year. In the US, EU, etc, the Switch has been readily available for most for months (baring specific weeks, as with the PS4), so i'm not really sure i understand your point there.

Switch was selling out fast (just not instantly) in US and Europe too. This is about the switch not having enough stock to affect others early on. The holiday quarter almost doubled the stock for the previous 7 months and that's when it begun to take away more sales from other systems.

No, it wasn't. There's no denying the Switch's success, but to say it's suffered significant supply issues in the EU and US past the first few months would be flatly wrong. It sells out in specific places from time to time (as it standard for most consoles), but in general if you wanted a Switch you could easily acquire one. You'll notice that despite several supply apologies from Nintendo in the first few months of the Switch's life, they've said little on the topic since about anywhere but Japan.

You could argue that the Switch still had some supply strain parts of the west (e.g. shop A didn't get enough), but there's a reason people stopped making supply arguments in the sale discussion threads months ago. It's also highlighted by the Switch's sales curve for the year. If it'd maintained significant global supply issues until the holidays, we'd expect to see an abnormally sharp increase in sales as that supply opened up. As things stand, its curve has been fairly typical.

Genos8 said: 

I see some contradiction here. Do you think it has high chances to be up YOY in 2018 or that being in it's 5th year will greatly reduce sales? Can't go for the latter and then change to the former if it sells much less. I for instance think the ps4 will face a natural decline for being in it's 5th year AND it will be intensified by the switch presence. Without the switch I think it would fall to 17m but the switch should make it decrease to less than 13m.

That is a very, very bold prediction. Would you like to make a bet?



Genos8 on 11 January 2018
CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

I see some contradiction here. Do you think it has high chances to be up YOY in 2018 or that being in it's 5th year will greatly reduce sales? Can't go for the latter and then change to the former if it sells much less. I for instance think the ps4 will face a natural decline for being in it's 5th year AND it will be intensified by the switch presence. Without the switch I think it would fall to 17m but the switch should make it decrease to less than 13m.

There is no contradiction. There is no way to know the reason for the PS4's decline of 300K between November and Dec ember 2017. Period couldn't get any more obvious on the end.


What happens in 2018 is a side-step to what I've been saying, and yet, I still entertained it.

The contradiction is saying there's a high chance it will be up but also saying that being in it's 5th year could mean a big decline, thus the question on which of these two do you believe in.