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Genos8 on 11 January 2018
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CGI-Quality said:
Genos8 said:

Honest question. If in 2018 the switch sells more than ps4 AND ps4 is a lot down year over year, would you still say the same? Because I already find it weird that someone is dismissing a new sucessfull system as if it didn't affect others. How much does each have to sell?

It's not a dismissal. The Switch could have made the impact (I've said this from the beginning). However, it just can't be proven and 300K isn't a lot.

Next, if PS4 is down "a lot" (remember, this is key) in 2018 - then sure, I may start to think the Switch has made a bigger impact (well, besides the fact that the PS4 would be 5-years-old at that point, which could also impact the system that way). However, my argument has been about 2016 vs 2017, where the PS4 did its best and was only down 300K (out of 20.2m) in a holiday period, with no way to be sure what the absolute cause was. 

Then there's the other side, if PS4 sells even more in 2018. That possibility is just as high.

I see some contradiction here. Do you think it has high chances to be up YOY in 2018 or that being in it's 5th year will greatly reduce sales? Can't go for the latter and then change to the former if it sells much less. I for instance think the ps4 will face a natural decline for being in it's 5th year AND it will be intensified by the switch presence. Without the switch I think it would fall to 17m but the switch should make it decrease to less than 13m.